Gold prices have demonstrated sustained strength throughout the second quarter, aligning with robust overall demand. This positive trend is expected to persist, with the potential for gradual price increases in the second half of the year. While Western investment demand is anticipated to contribute positively to gold consumption, the full-year outlook has been modestly adjusted downward due to weaker-than-expected ETF performance in the second quarter. However, the ongoing strength of over-the-counter (OTC) investment is expected to offset this impact. Jewelry demand has been tempered by price sensitivity in the second quarter, but India's market is anticipated to remain resilient due to recent duty cuts and a favorable economic climate. Conversely, technology demand, driven by AI and high-performance computing, is expected to continue its upward trajectory. Recycling activity is projected to remain elevated due to high gold prices and economic uncertainty. Mine supply is expected to reach record levels, although recent revisions have slightly lowered the full-year outlook. Downside risks to the gold price outlook include a potential pullback in central bank buying and weakening emerging market retail investment. Conversely, a more pronounced economic slowdown in developed markets, coupled with lower interest rates, could create upward pressure on gold prices. Additionally, escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly in the lead-up to the US presidential election, may increase market volatility and support gold's safe-haven appeal. Attribution: World Gold Council report Download
