Germany's political future appears uncertain with both the German chancellor and his conservative challenger claiming a mandate to govern, writes Gamal Nkrumah Fortune has smiled on incumbent German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder. The Fates, on the other hand, seem to have laid his conservative challenger Angela Merkel rather low. More German voters than expected turned a deaf ear to Merkel's pledges of radical economic reform. "The result is a debacle for the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and their candidate for chancellor," wrote Die Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. The result of Sunday's poll is unprecedented in German post-war history. On paper, centre-left Chancellor Schroeder, 61, and right-wing opposition leader Merkel, 51, are gridlocked. The stage is set for protracted political horse-trading. There is no love lost between the sprightly German chancellor and his lacklustre opponent. Irony is that while Merkel took a greater share of the vote, Schroeder is better placed for what seem to be several weeks of tough political negotiations ahead. Only Schroeder is in a position to form a governing coalition. The blame game is already in motion. With Germany in danger of terminal economic and political decline, everything rests on whether the country's leaders are willing to build ambitiously on the foundations put in place by the architects of the post-war federal republic. Chancellor Schroeder's Social Democratic Party (SDP) and their junior partner the Greens once again hold the future of continental Europe's most politically influential nation in the balance. A new political alliance, however -- the so- called the Left Party of former communists and disaffected ex-Social Democrats with its candidate Oskar Lafontaine (a former SDP leader and finance minister who resigned from Schroeder's government in 1999) -- is likely to play a key political role in the near future. The best hope for the country, it now appears, is the formation of a grand coalition, but it won't be easy. "The people of Germany have the choice of whether they want Merkel or Schroeder to continue cutting back the welfare state," Lafontaine warned. "But that is no choice. The only difference between Merkel and Schroeder is the hair style," he said, tongue-in-cheek. Lafontaine's bombshell The Heart Beats on the Left was an instant bestseller, but his political popularity in Germany is restricted to a particular constituency -- those who have absolutely no faith in what they perceive as a wishy-washy social democracy. It is still not quite clear if Lafontaine will join hands with Schroeder in a grand leftist coalition. Lafontaine clearly despises Schroeder and has spoken out against him in public with cutting derision after he fell out with the German premier. He blamed his resignation from the ruling SDP-Greens coalition government on "bad team play". "One cannot work successfully without good team play," the man nicknamed "red Oskar" told reporters then. Today, his admonition is as pertinent as ever: Germany's political heavyweights will have to learn to work together amicably. The onus is now on political compromise. But much else is missing in Germany today. The charismatic affability of the incumbent German chancellor will not alone carry the day. He must form alliances with other parties. He has many coalition choices. "With a turnout of more than 77 per cent, it is clear German voters took the opportunity to actively participate in the political process. The unexpected result if these elections is a good sign that a lively democratic system exists in Germany today and clearly shows that every vote counts," the German Ambassador to Egypt Martin Kobler told Al-Ahram Weekly. "Thanks to our proportional representation system, smaller parties are represented in the German parliament, Bundestag. Since none of the two big parties can form a government alone, Germany will again have a coalition government," Kobler added. For both Germany and Europe the prospects of a hung German parliament are daunting. An ungovernable Germany is always a European calamity. Germany, the most populous European nation, is also the continent's economic powerhouse. The German political impasse could spell disaster for the rest of Europe. Sunday's election result "appears to reflect the mood of most Germans who, while they may accept the need for reform, are evenly divided on how far it should go and who should pay," explained Britain's Financial Times. Economics featured prominently in the election campaign. Indeed, the economy, unemployment and the country's foreign policy were the three main election themes. Now, economics and foreign policy might break Germany's political deadlock. Some 4.7 million Germans are currently unemployed, and the 62 million Germans who were eligible to vote on Sunday's general elections made it clear that joblessness was their top concern. Schroeder's seventh year in office has not been an easy one. Polls indicate that the SPD grabbed some 34 per cent of the vote. But, the German electorate is generally unhappy with Schroeder's "Agenda 2010" reforms to welfare and labour market rules. Schroeder's rhetoric was not followed by action. Set against the ambitious hopes initially vested in it, it was widely judged a terrible disappointment. Merkel promised to introduce a radical economic reform programme marked by income tax cuts and labour market liberalisation. But obviously, judging from the election results, fewer Germans than at first anticipated trust her agenda. Indeed, a triumphant Schroeder managed to secure a draw with a now visibly shaken and dejected Merkel who had been expected to trounce him. Merkel, the colourless anti- communist Easterner, is hopelessly pro- American. He is as vehemently anti-war as ever. Their economic agendas might not be ultimately that different from each other, but their respective foreign policies are miles apart. Where Schroeder strongly opposed the United States-led invasion of Iraq, Merkel publicly applauded the Bush administration's onslaught. She still supports it. A visit Merkel made to Washington in the run-up to the US-led invasion of Iraq outraged Schroeder. "She discredited Germany abroad," Schroeder said. "And that was indecent." All said and done, Merkel's hair's breadth victory might not earn a place in history. She might actually emerge the biggest loser. The "red- green" alliance of Chancellor Schroeder and Green Party leader Joshka Fischer, Germany's dynamic foreign minister, might, with Lafontaine and Left Party support, form the country's new government. Talks will take time. The negotiators need, however, to avoid the threatened debacle of political stalemate at all costs. For the time being, Merkel has aligned herself with the pro-business Free Democrats; a now much humbled party that has in the past served in most of Germany's post-World War II governments. Surprisingly though, the Free Democrats did astonishingly well on Sunday's election, grabbing no less than 10 per cent of the vote. But the alliance might find it hard to beat a leftist coalition. Indeed, Merkel might be forced into an awkward union with her chief rivals, the SDP. As the poll neared, Edmund Stoiber, the right- wing leader of Bavaria's ruling Christian Social Union, aligned to the CDU, spoke contemptuously about not permitting "frustrated" Easterners to decide on the country's political future. Easterners, however, might ultimately decide the vote. One district in the eastern city of Dresden is not voting until 2 October because of the death of a candidate. And there will be no official final results published until after the Dresden ballot takes place -- giving ample opportunity for the German political heavyweights to sort themselves out. Until then the future of the German polity is in play.
