CAIRO - By the end of this month, Egypt's benchmark index EGX 30 may be removed from the MSCI Emerging Markets Indexes if officials do not reopen the Egyptian Exchange soon. Reopen the Bourse now or else the current crisis would be exacerbated and Egypt's stock market pushed into the unknown, experts say. When the Egyptian Financial Supervisory Authority (EFSA) shut down the Bourse on January 30, banks were closed as the Lotus Revolution, which toppled Hosni Mubarak's 30-year regime, intensified. The country's main index EGX 30 shed 6.1 and 10.5 per cent on the last two business days of January 26 and January 27. Local panic-stricken investors call for keeping the Bourse closed to avoid massive declines in stock prices. But this can't solve anything, one analyst said. "Keeping the Bourse closed is no solution, and those who think it is, know nothing about stock markets. Yes, the indexes will fall. What happened wasn't a bomb or a car crash. It's a revolution that toppled a regime. There's no guarantee that the market won't fall. It will plummet because of the way the Bourse's head handled the crisis," Mohabeldeen Agena, the chief technical analyst of Cairo-based investment bank Beltone Financial, told the Egyptian Mail. After Mubarak's ouster on February 11, an optimistic mood dominated many global funds, painting a silver lining in the clouds. But unfortunately it was short-lived. "After Mubarak stepped down, I was so optimistic, sure that a buying sentiment would drive foreign investors. But keeping the market closed has incurred a mood of deep mistrust," Agena argued. "There's no credibility... Even if it's reopened, who can guarantee that trading won't be suspended again. I hope I'm wrong, but if many people think the same, it will be more complicated." Egypt's political uncertainty was already a key factor before January 25, Agena said. According to him, trading was affected on many occasions. "Before the January 25 Revolution, foreign investment in Egyptian stocks was highly affected by the unclear political situation. Portfolios of Arabs and non-Arabs were short-and medium-term. The market was characterised by high speculation. At times of parliamentary elections, the market fell due to massive selling," he explained. "The market lacked long-term investors... The Bourse weighed 0.05 per cent on the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. It's a low valuation due to political uncertainty, which kept huge foreign inflows away. Egypt's market capitalisation stands at around $14 billion, compared to $3.7 trillion of all emerging economies, according to MSCI data. MSCI is scheduled to take a decisive action after 40 business days since the Bourse closed on January 27. "After January 25, I thought the outlook would be positive if there was a speedy and peaceful transition of power. Now, foreigners fear political chaos, which might lead to a situation worse than Mubarak's regime," he said. Beltone's Agena dismisses any excuses for keeping the Bourse shut for so long. It's a problem of credibility, he said. "There's no excuse for keeping the Bourse closed after reopening the banks. The problem now isn't just keeping it closed. I think its chairman has lost his credibility for not honoring promises to reopen the market and failing to give a reason for keeping it shut down. "The market as a whole may lose much of credibility, not because of the revolution, but because of its chairman." Last July Khaled Serry Seyam, a member of the National Democratic Party, was named Chairman of the Egyptian Exchange after Maged Shawqi. Experts call for selecting the Bourse's chairman through polls and not through direct appointment by the Government. "If the closure continues, investors will leave the market at any cost," he forecast and added "their return would not be easy". "Those at the helm of the Bourse have definitely failed in dealing with the crisis, just like the former regime failed in the face of the revolution. As a technical analyst, I don't know if there is an ideal scenario for dealing with the crisis. No one knows anything at this moment. In this climate of uncertainty, no one can give answers to foreign investors," he added.
