CAIRO: In a recent Carnegie Endowment report titled "Egypt's Local Elections Farce: Causes and Consequences Amr Hamzawy and Mohammed Herzallah argue that Egypt's controversial April 8 elections underscore the present backward slide and broad deterioration in Egyptian politics. The Egyptian government's crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood in advance of the April 8 municipal elections was motivated by its determination to exclude the Brotherhood from the 2011 presidential election and is likely to persist until the matter of presidential succession is settled, they say. The two experts highlighted that current social and political unrest was not the consequence of reform-driven activism like that of 2004 and 2005, but a reaction to worsening economic conditions by independent and discordant activists. The regime's repressive response to smother strikes has failed to stabilize the street. The decentralized nature of these protests makes it more difficult for the regime to contain them, but also prevents the formation of a cohesive opposition movement with clear objectives. Another key point in the report is that the regime has consistently failed to resolve the problems of relentless inflation, high unemployment, and the country's crippled welfare system. Minor steps taken by the government continue to fall short of the comprehensive social and economic reform needed. It adds that the regime's return to authoritarian methods impairs organized political opposition in the country, which in turn erodes the prospects of sustainable national and political recovery. But opposition forces are also partly responsible for their present condition. Their lack of credibility and discipline has undermined their ability to establish a reliable opposition front. The Brotherhood's last-minute boycott of the local elections, the report continues, revealed the movement's lack of consistency in its strategic thinking. Their decision conspicuously contradicts a previous commitment to advancing reform through political participation at all costs. Reflecting on the boycott, the authors strike a cautionary note on the consequences."To the degree that the movement intended to retaliate for the regime's flagrant actions, its decision may not pay off. After all, keeping the Muslim Brotherhood out of the local councils was the intention of the ruling establishment in the first place. "What's more, the movement is setting a dangerous precedent that the regime will certainly keep in mind: through sufficient political persecution and repression, the authorities can count on the Brotherhood to take itself voluntarily out the political equation, they conclude. The Carnegie Middle East Center is a public policy think tank and research center based in Beirut. Bringing together senior researchers from the region, the Center aims to better inform the process of political change in the Middle East and deepen understanding of the issues the region and its people face.
