The upcoming Arab summit, the first after Obama, is perhaps the last chance for the Arabs to put their house in order before the ground shifts from underneath their feet, writes Ayman El-Amir* As Qatar prepares to host the upcoming Arab summit, there has been a flurry of activities that purport to "clear the air" ahead the high-level meeting. Presidents, kings and ministers have been crisscrossing the region to mend fences, fix agendas, build coalitions and seek common ground that could help dub the Doha gathering as the summit of reconciliation. Arab attendees badly need a measure of reconciliation to help cement fissures that developed among them and they face mounting regional and international changes that challenge the status quo some of them are trying to maintain. Despite recent attempts at papering over personal acrimonies, substantive differences remain and will be carried over to Doha where they will probably undermine the outcome of the conference. The recent Israeli carnage in Gaza has sharply divided Arab partners and the reconstruction scheme could entail more difficulties. Divisions among Arab moderates and hardliners are a reflection of Western attitudes towards the Palestinian struggle against Israeli occupation that polarised inter- Arab relations. Some openly blamed Hamas, not Israel, for the three-week-long campaign of murder and destruction. For instance, Egypt said it warned Hamas against terminating the temporary ceasefire with Israel but was not clear about warning Israel against military overreaction. Qatar, which could not possibly be counted among the rejectionists, riled up the moderates by convening an emergency summit conference in support of Gaza, which the moderates resolutely boycotted. The reconstruction of Gaza now awaits Palestinian reconciliation between the resistance movements and the Palestinian Authority (PA) of Mahmoud Abbas. This is envisaged to produce a consensus government that would include elements of Hamas. US officials have told Egyptian General Intelligence Chief Omar Suleiman, who travelled to Washington to get the blessings of the Obama administration for a consensus Palestinian government, that accepting the integration of Hamas's representatives in such a government was contingent on Western conditionality of the recognition of Israel and acceptance of the Oslo Accords concluded with Fatah. For Arab countries that want to see Palestinian reconciliation take effect it is a catch-22 situation. To facilitate the launch of the Gaza reconstruction scheme, Hamas and its Arab supporters will have to accept a government of technocrats that would be preferably dominated by the PA or politically independent personalities with no factional affiliation, which excludes Hamas from the political equation. Additionally, the new extremist Israeli government may use this as a conditionality to open up closed crossings into Gaza for reconstruction material to pass through. Recent visits and exchanges among Arab leaders, including the Riyadh mini-summit meeting, the visit by President Bashar Al-Assad to Jordan and President Mubarak to Jordan and Oman, may have helped soften tones and calm tempers. However, the sticky issue of relations with Iran, espoused by Syria and Qatar, will still prove to be divisive at the Doha conference. Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul-Gheit recently accused Iran of trying to "blackmail" Egypt by launching a propaganda campaign against its policy, particularly regarding Egypt's support of the Palestinian cause. Iranian support of anti-Israeli Arab resistance movements is vying with lukewarm Arab backing or sometime hostile attitudes. Oil-rich Arab countries are competing in pledges for the reconstruction of Gaza, with Saudi Arabia promising $1 billion in assistance funds and Qatar offering $250 million. The first endorses the PA of Abbas while Qatar supports Hamas. Domestically, Saudi Arabia is quite wary of the restive attitude recently shown by its Shia minority in the Eastern Province, and indirectly blames Iranian interference for it, while Qatar seems quite comfortable with its Iranian relationship. The Obama administration's recent overtures to Iran are baffling to suspicious Arab countries as well as to Israel. There is no question that in trying to engage Iran the US will not do so at the expense of relations with its traditional allies in the region, particularly Saudi Arabia and Israel. But it would be equally unrealistic to expect the US to ignore for long what in effect Iran is -- a superpower of the region. Most countries of the Arab Middle East and the Gulf region do not seem to be attuned to the strategic variables that are blowing across to the area. Although major US national interests in the Middle East have not changed, all Bush era bets are off the table. The Obama administration is looking with fresh eyes at Iran as well as at its traditional Arab allies. This will be one of the issues of discussion at the Doha summit, or it should be, depending on who knows what. Another issue to be hotly debated is the lessons learned from the latest Israeli invasion of Gaza, what to expect from the emerging extremist right-wing government in Israel and how to confront the policies it will spawn. The invasion of Gaza and the atrocities Israel committed there exposed Arab vulnerability and inherent weaknesses. Not only did all 22 Arab countries helplessly watch the drama unfold but they shamefully fought among themselves, activists against moderates, while Gazans were being killed en masse. How will Arab countries face the impending extremist Israeli government of Benyamin Netanyahu and his racist foreign minister, Avigdor Lieberman, remains to be seen. Will Arab policies be reactive or proactive in dealing with the new government and how much of the 2002 Arab peace initiative will be left on the table is a debatable issue. How will the Arab regimes face up to Israeli expansionist policy and what if Israeli-Palestinian tensions lead to another Israeli wave of aggression in Gaza or the West Bank? Some Arab leaders may propose a wait-and-see attitude, or advocate talking to Israel through pleading with the US or picking up negotiations with the PA where they left off, if indeed there is anything to pursue now that the prisoner exchange for captured Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit has been aborted by the incoming government. Some may argue that Arab governments should back up another round of negotiations between the PA and Israel with a supporting US role to revive the peace process. But the extent to which the US may wish to go, beyond rhetorical advocacy of a two state solution, is still indeterminable. Iraq in a post-US withdrawal era and how to fill in the anticipated vacuum there will be another preoccupation for the Doha summit. If Arab countries are worried about Iran's stepping into the vacuum then Iran should be the primary party to talk to, despite all the charges levelled against it of interference. Iran stands to benefit most from a stable and peaceful Iraq that would embark on reconstruction and development. With an estimated 50,000 US troops to be stationed in Iraq beyond the 2011 withdrawal deadline, there will not be much of a vacuum to fill. Besides, Arab regimes, big and small, have no influence or expertise that could help fill a potential vacuum in Iraq except, perhaps, stuffing it with money. Collective Arab resolve could not save Iraq from the Anglo-American invasion, tame the raging violence that ensued, stop the fratricidal warring that engulfed the country or negotiate any peace. What they did was fall victim to a US-Israeli scheme to incite Shia-Sunni conflict in Iraq. Arab countries meeting at the Doha summit have a tall order and difficult challenges to meet. After all the flurry of visits and meetings, the air is not quite clear yet, and unanimity is far from assured. The bet is whether the Doha 2009 summit will mark a difficult but new beginning or the starting point for the decline of the 45-year-old tradition of Arab summits, even if appearances are maintained. * The writer is former Al-Ahram correspondent in Washington, DC. He also served as director of United Nations Radio and Television in New York.
