For a change, a relatively quiet Lebanon is watching chaos unfold in Syria. But reactions from both sides have been unusually muted, says Lucy Fielder As Lebanon watched events unfold in neighbouring Syria with mounting apprehension, the reaction of the latter's allies -- Hizbullah, Amal and a plethora of smaller parties and sectarian figures -- was predictably but quietly pro- regime. Less expected, perhaps, was the lack of vocal public support for Syria's pro-reform protesters by the anti- Syrian, Western-backed 14 March leadership. Launched after the killing of Rafik Al-Hariri in 2005, for which many Lebanese initially blamed Syria, the 14 March movement was created to push for the withdrawal of Syria's troops from Lebanon. Accusing Syria of meddling in Lebanon's affairs and supporting the Special Tribunal for Lebanon to try Al-Hariri's killers remained for many years the movement's main position. Yet as Damascus faces the biggest popular challenge since Bashar Al-Assad became president in 2000, Lebanon's outspoken political leaders have largely fallen silent. For one ardent 14 March supporter, a former member of the Democratic Left party who was part of what its participants called the Independence Uprising of 2005, the reaction by the movement's leaders was "short-sighted". "They're perhaps not sure whether it would backfire if they publicly supported the Syrian uprising, or maybe some Arab regimes that don't want to see more popular uprisings in the region are applying pressure," said the activist, who did not want to be named. Caretaker Prime Minister Saad Al-Hariri, the most prominent figure in the bloc as it moves into opposition after years of dominating government, is backed by Saudi Arabia, which has given public support for the Syrian regime. Riyadh and Damascus have achieved a rapprochement over the past two years after enmity flared following the Hariri killing and during the 2006 war with Israel, when the Arab world split between so-called "moderates" supported by the West, and the "rejectionist" camp that backed Hizbullah. Last year, Al-Hariri retracted the accusation that Syria killed his father Rafik. Karim Makdisi, assistant director of the American University of Beirut's Essam Fares Institute, said that following the Tunisian and Egyptian revolutions, Saudi Arabian and Gulf states were afraid of seeing regime change from the grassroots in Syria even after years of criticising its leaders. "They don't want to see it happen in this way -- they saw the external regime change [by Israel] in 2006 as less threatening than one that comes from within." But even those Lebanese leaders who are critical of Syria but not under direct Saudi influence are remaining quiet, Makdisi pointed out. "It's not at all clear that the Syrian regime's going to collapse, so they don't want to burn bridges," he said. "They're hedging, basically." Some Lebanese also fear that Syria's complex sectarian mix, which echoes Lebanon's in many ways, could threaten civil war or prolonged instability in the event of sweeping changes in the country. That would likely have a knock-on effect in Lebanon, whose communities maintain close ties with their neighbours, and whose politics has always been intertwined. Syria's key allies in Lebanon praised Al-Assad's much anticipated speech last week, which fell short of promising the reforms many observers had expected. Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt, an erstwhile 14 March hawk who has defected to Hizbullah's camp, said the speech raised "positive horizons for reform". "The speech will bolster Syrian national unity and internal stability," he said. Hizbullah's number two, Sheikh Naim Qassem, said Syria's regime was in "good shape" and warned that attempts to spread chaos would fail. Hizbullah, which is backed by Syria and Iran, came under criticism domestically for wading into the dispute on Bahrain, where a large and disenfranchised Shia community is seeking political rights, but staying quiet on Syria. "It exposes a double-standard -- either you're for democratic systems or against them," said Makdisi. "But although it's a bit uncomfortable for Hizbullah, I don't think anyone really expected it to come out and criticise the regime. And the other side's not really saying much either." Internally, the dispute over how to view events in Syria has focussed on Syrian allegations that the Future Movement of Saad Al-Hariri aided Syria's protesters. Hizbullah's Al-Manar channel, whose minimal coverage has mainly led on reporting Syrian regime's interpretation of events, carried its allegations of shipments of weapons leaving the northern Lebanese city of Tripoli for Lattakia, a protest hub. Christian Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun also levelled such allegations at Al-Hariri and his allies. Future denied any meddling in Syria's internal affairs and Syria later denied that its television channels had even carried the report. The murky affair showed how hard it is to get information from Syria, which has cracked down hard on journalists attempting to cover the troubles. The 14 March supporter said the lack of pan-Arab and local media coverage was making it hard for ordinary Lebanese to follow events with the close attention one might expect. "Unless you have contacts among activists there, it's really hard to know what's going on," he said. "Also I think people here are afraid of a Syrian backlash, and perhaps many don't dare to hope [for change]". As internal challenges preoccupy the Syrian regime, stagnation persists in Lebanon, which has now lacked a government since January. Hizbullah and its allies brought down Al-Hariri's government amid a row about the Special Tribunal, which is widely expected to indict some of its members in the 2005 assassination. A power-struggle has now broken out within the alliance that is to form the government of "one colour", in local parlance, since 14 March declined to join a national unity government. Makdisi said the lack of a decisive player in Lebanon amid the Syrian upheaval could be causing the dispute to drag. "If there's no hegemonic outside power, there's no rush," he said. "Though I think Syria would be quite happy to see a government formed here -- especially since it would be by its allies -- and would rather not have this uncertainty while it's dealing with its internal situation."
