Washington is considering a military occupation of Iraq after removing Saddam Hussein. But at what price, asks Salah Hemeid Click to view caption The Bush administration is developing a detailed plan, modeled on the post 2nd World War occupation of Japan and Germany, to install an American-led military government in Iraq. The plan marks the first time the administration has discussed what could be a lengthy occupation of Iraq by coalition forces, led by the United States. According to the New York Times, in the initial phase, Iraq would be governed by an American military commander who would assume the role that Gen. Douglas MacArthur served in Japan in 1945. The plan also calls for war-crime trials of Iraqi leaders and a transition to an elected civilian government that could take months or years. In contemplating an occupation, the administration is scaling back the initial role for Iraqi opposition forces in a post- Saddam government. Until now it had been assumed that Iraqi dissidents both inside and outside the country would form a government, but it was never clear when they would take full control. The description of the emerging American plan and the possibility of war-crime trials of Iraqi leaders could be part of an administration effort to warn Iraq's generals of an unpleasant future if they continue to support Saddam. President Bush's aides say they also want full control over Iraq while American-led forces carry out their principal mission: finding and destroying weapons of mass destruction. Although there had not yet been any formal approval of the plan, Secretary of State Colin Powell said the model is being reviewed and American soldiers would be bound to remain in Iraq if the United States fights a war to depose Saddam "until you could put in place another system". Also it was not clear whether major US allies had been consulted. The Times quoted the senior US official as saying that the administration was "coalescing around" the concept after discussions of options with President Bush and his top aides. While Baghdad has maintained an uncanny silence regarding this plan, Iraqi opposition leaders, who have been cooperating with the Bush administration in its regime change strategy -- hoping to replace Saddam once the Iraqi leader is ousted -- say they were stunned by the Times revelation and later by Secretary of State Colin Powell's veiled support of the plan. "This is not what they (US officials) told us," Hamid Al- Bayati, a spokesman for the Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, told Al-Ahram Weekly in a telephone interview from London. Al-Bayati, a member of the steering committee preparing for a broad Iraqi opposition meeting in Belgium later this month, said US officials coordinating with the opposition have always insisted that the exiled anti-Saddam groups will play a major role in any future government in Baghdad. Fouad Masoum, of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, told the Weekly that all the Iraqi opposition parties are opposed to "any kind of foreign occupation". "We are not going to replace a dictatorship with an American military occupation," he said in another interview from London. In private discussions the Iraqi dissidents, however, seemed divided. Some agree that an American-led administration is a viable option which can save the country from anarchy, while others say such a plan confirms their old suspicion regarding the Americans, who will eventually betray the Iraqi opposition once it had fulfilled its envisaged role. In an attempt to alleviate the opposition's fears, Zalmay Khalilzad, Bush's special assistant for Near East, Southwest Asian and North African affairs, said "our intent is not conquest and occupation of Iraq, but we do what needs to be done to achieve the disarmament mission and to get Iraq ready for a democratic transition and then through democracy over time." Meanwhile, in the latest sign that the United States is moving closer to war with Iraq, the Pentagon ordered the battle staffs of the US army's V Corps, with headquarters at Heidelberg, Germany, and the Marine Corps' 1st Marine Expeditionary Force, based at Camp Pendleton, California, to go to Kuwait, joining several thousand other US ground forces already in the Gulf emirate. On the diplomatic front, the administration has pressed for a debate in the Security Council on a new resolution on Iraq despite stiff resistance from France, China and Russia. In a move to placate these countries US diplomats offered to remove a threat to use all means necessary to force Iraq to disarm. Under such compromise the Security Council is expected to approve a resolution requiring the disarmament of Iraq and specifying "consequences" that Iraq would suffer for defiance. Related stories: More than meets the eye 17 - 23 Otober 2002 War for oil? 17 - 23 October 2002 Matters of consequence 10 - 16 October 2002 Heikal's dream 10 - 16 October 2002
