A year ago Muslim Brothers packed a Cairo stadium to celebrate the October War victory. The crowds were jubilant. Mohamed Morsi hailed the masses of his “family and tribe”, as he referred to fellow Brothers and Islamists in general. The military establishment as embodied in the Supreme Council for the Armed Forces (SCAF), which had governed the country during the interim period between the 25 January Revolution and the election of Egypt's first civilian president, was not present. Morsi had dismissed the head of SCAF, General Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, with a constitutional declaration issued on 21 August 2012. The situation today could not be more different as Egypt marks the 40th anniversary of the October War. The Armed Forces will be leading the festivities and the Muslim Brotherhood will be absent, having been ousted from power three months ago. Its leaders are either in jail or on the run. As it struggles to survive the most severe crisis in its history the Brotherhood plans to pour cold water on the 6 October celebrations. Will it succeed in dampening the festivities? Muslim Brothers have called on protesters to surround ministry buildings, government facilities as well as the homes of government and military officials who will be attending official festivities on 6 October. Their campaign was launched on a webpage called “The October Revolution Movement”. It promises an “unprecedented” turnout of demonstrators “everywhere” to “defeat the coup.” Ahmed Mohamed Morsi, son of the deposed president, lent his voice to the campaign, calling on Egyptians to join the 6 October demonstrations to “overthrow the coup”. On his personal webpage he proclaimed, “the coup-makers will drown in the sea of the steadfastness of the Egyptian people, just as a pharaoh and his soldiers drown in the sea at the height of their power... Our appointment is on 6 October. Despair is treachery... I learned in the Muslim Brotherhood that you do not ask God when and how. You let God lead. May he strengthen you in the righteous course and grant you victory.” Many politicians have urged the security authorities to gather as much intelligence as possible about these plans and to take all necessary precautions. In particular, they urged the Ministry of Interior to tighten security around government facilities and protect public figures. The media is filled with reports and commentaries on the Muslim Brotherhood's plans to ruin the 6 October celebrations by staging demonstrations, organising roadblocks and causing havoc in the streets. Commentators also anticipate that the Western media will escalate its criticism of the Egyptian Armed Forces. There have been reports of secret meetings between Muslim Brotherhood members and other Islamist groups to plan demonstrations in front of the offices of the Ministry of Defence, Military Intelligence, the Qubba palace, Al-Ittihadiya palace, Tora prison and Maspero, the Egyptian Television and Radio building. The reports also speak of plans to storm Tahrir Square on 6 October, and of attempts by the Muslim Brotherhood to incite tribes in North Sinai, especially in Rafah and Sheikh Zuweid, to take action against the Armed Forces. Sources say, however, that tribal elders and most of the people in Sinai are working with the army in order to thwart the Muslim Brotherhood's schemes. As Brotherhood activists work on their plans for 6 October the group's websites have been circulating rumours of rifts in the army, of a shortage of funds to pay government employees' salaries, an imminent stock market crash and the flight of investors from Egypt. They have called for renewed civil disobedience, including the disruption of transport networks. “The Muslim Brotherhood is working towards a security breakdown scenario,” says security affairs expert General Fouad Allam. “Hundreds of members of the group who have received combat training will take part in the actions to create confusion and chaos. The universities will be their main base for creating disturbances and other problems.” Allam claims the International Muslim Brotherhood organisation has held secret meetings in Qatar and Turkey to draw up plans which include concluding deals with British, German and US public relations firms and which discussed ways to provoke the army into violence confrontations. He also predicts that Al-Gamaa Al-Islamiya and the Muslim Brotherhood will stage demonstrations in front of security directorate buildings and police stations, ostensibly to protest against human rights violations but in reality to provide cover for thugs among their ranks to use violence in order to create confusion and provoke clashes. Allam adds that the Armed Forces and police are alert to such “criminal schemes” and have taken the precautions to ensure that the Egyptian people will be able to celebrate the 6 October victory in an atmosphere of security. Some commentators have described the Muslim Brotherhood's plans for demonstrations on 6 October as political suicide. The Muslim Brotherhood is living in a dream world, they say, totally detached from reality and unable to grasp the extent of the group's popular rejection. Campaigns such as the plans for 6 October and escalating civil disobedience will only backfire and further detract from the group's dwindling public assets. One source adds, “They are now furnishing clear proof of their intent to terrorise the people, intimidate peaceful citizens and undermine the military. But nowhere in the world has an organisation like this been able to defeat the will of the people backed by a strong army and police. These calls [of the Muslim Brotherhood] are the last arrows in their quiver. They will strike the group's chest and seal its political suicide.” Professor Amal Hamada of the Faculty of Economics and Political Science at Cairo University believes that the Muslim Brotherhood has lost much of its ability to mobilise now that Sinai has been cleared of terrorist cells and most of the group's leaders have been arrested. Young Muslim Brothers who have broken away from the organisation want to make an appearance on 6 October, but in a different way. Amr Emara, who resigned from the group during the Rabaa Al-Adaweya and Nahda Square sit-ins, says that young former cadres will try to take part in the demonstrations and celebrations in Tahrir Square being organised by revolutionary youth groups in order to help them forestall a Muslim Brotherhood bid to occupy the iconic square. Apart from this, he said, his group will commemorate the 6 October victory by organising “awareness-raising caravans” around the country and by trying to persuade the relevant authorities to ensure a military presence in towns and villages in Upper Egypt, an area all too often overlooked by the state. “If the youth of the revolution do not turn out [in Tahrir on 6 October], we will confront those Muslim Brotherhood youth who are still members of the mother organisation ourselves,” says Emara. As part of its plans to sabotage the 6 October celebrations the Muslim Brotherhood has already called for a week of sit-ins in the Metro, starting 30 September. The plan is to force the Metro to interrupt service and cause gridlock over-ground, paralysing the capital.
