For the government to expect an increase in wheat production, it first has to give the farmers the seeds, fertilisers, and diesel oil they need, and this is not happening. This year, the government supplied farmers with wheat seed at twice the usual price and in quantities that were 20 per cent less than needed. It also provided farmers with only 25 per cent of the fertilisers they needed. As a result, the farmers had either to reduce the amount of fertilisers, or buy them at double the price on the black market. This means that either the wheat did not get the fertiliser it needed, or that the farmers, having paid the black market prices for fertilisers, themselves went hungry. The government claims that the total area cultivated with wheat is 3.4 million feddans. If this figure is correct, then the area cultivated with clover is no more than 2.5 million feddans. We all know that farmers are more eager to feed their animals than they are to feed themselves, because the milk, cheese, and butter they get from their animals support them at times when they have no other sources of income. When a calf is born, a farmer's family feels blessed. As a result, the area farmers set aside for clover is never below three million feddans, and sometimes this area goes up to 3.5 million feddans. However, let's assume that out of a sudden sense of patriotism on the farmers' part, or a desire to put the government's interests before their own, this area was indeed only three million feddans this year. Please bear in mind that small farmers, not cattle farmers, provide nearly 90 per cent of our consumption of meat, so we don't want them to cut down on clover too much. Regarding diesel oil, we have been seeing diesel oil shortages for about three months now, and farmers need diesel to run their water pumps. Because of the shortages, they have either to buy diesel at inflated prices on the black market, or use less water in irrigation. In either case, either the crops suffer or the farmers do. In the case of wheat, one suspects that not only is it receiving less fertiliser, but it is receiving less water too. Wheat also competes with other crops for land, among them beets, which take up about 330,000 feddans, broad beans, which take up 150,000 feddans, barley, which takes up about 300,000 feddans, and lentils and chickpeas. The total area that these non-wheat crops cover is nearly 750,000 feddans, not forgetting the three million feddans of clover. Because the country's total cultivable area is only 6.5 million feddans, the area left for wheat is something in the vicinity of 2.7 million feddans. And with each feddan producing on average 2.25 tonnes, the country's total wheat production cannot be more than six million tonnes this year, and it is likely to be considerably lower. However, the ministry of agriculture nevertheless claims that the production of wheat, which only two years ago hovered at about 5.5 million tonnes per year, last year rose to 7.5 million tonnes and will rise again this year to 9.5 million tonnes. Not even Australian kangaroos can bounce that high, or that often. The international figures also don't tally with the claims of our government. According to the US Grains Council, Egypt's imports of wheat averaged 11 million tonnes over the past three years. Since the country's consumption of wheat averages 15 million tonnes per year, this means that we only produce four million tonnes or so, almost one half of what the ministry claims we do. The official figures keep speaking of self-sufficiency in bread, but leave out things such as pastries or macaroni, which compete for wheat. Can we be more realistic and stop cooking the books? The writer is a professor at the Faculty of Agriculture, Cairo University.
