WASHINGTON: As Libya's National Transitional Council (NTC) attempts to rebuild the country and maintain its fractious coalition, Dartmouth University professor and noted Libya expert Dirk Vadewalle discussed the NTC's strategy and challenges at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington on Wednesday. Vadewalle stressed that the easiest part of Libya's revolution — the overthrow of dictator Muammar Gaddafi — is complete and that the NTC's greatest challenges lie ahead. He asserted that there are two major prerequisites for the creation of a peaceful Libya: the establishment of effective state institutions that are widely perceived as legitimate and the formation of a national ethos and identity to bridge religious, sectarian and tribal differences. Libya is a broken country—the NTC estimates that 50,000 were killed in the six-month conflict—and can ill afford prolonged bloodshed. Vadewalle warned that the resolution of the current impasse with remaining Gaddafi loyalists in Bani Walid would be a harbinger of the future Libya. A peaceful, diplomatic solution would establish trust between the NTC and tribes in the Bani Walid region, including the indigenous Warfala tribe, which is the largest in Libya. Conversely, a violent outcome would set a dangerous precedent and promote forceful resolutions in future conflicts, may alienate important power brokers and could create a debilitating insurgency similar to the one produced by the dissolution of the Iraqi army in 2003. Fortunately, the dearth of government institutions and civil society under Gaddafi — a man who called democracy “an abortion of individual rights” — presents the NTC an exceptional opportunity to create a modern, functioning state with effective mechanisms to foster stability and meet citizen demands. However, immediate steps must be taken to revive the commercial banking sector, the central bank and the oil industry, which were ravaged during the battle for Libya. Vadewalle praised the NTC's organizational ability during the conflict and cited its delegation to Dubai, which presented a viable reconstruction plan to the international community. The successful presentation was crucial to securing international recognition of the NTC and facilitated an abundance of international aid, funding and expertise to Libya. These resources, in addition to future oil revenues, provide the NTC with excellent tools to rebuild the foundations of the state. Much more difficult will be creating a national spirit and identity. Vadewalle classified Libya as an “accidental state” created by the United Nations after the Second World War to satisfy the interests of great powers like the United States and Italy. As a result, it lacks a sense of national character and its citizens' loyalty is to tribe and province. Gaddafi manipulated Libya's tribes to establish patronage networks, consolidate support and preclude the creation of a legitimate political opposition. Bridging tribal rivalries are crucial to ensure a peaceful transition in Libya. Vadewalle also cited divisions already emerging along religious and regional lines. Especially troubling are the geographic cleavages between rebels from the eastern and western parts of the country. Although the rebellion started in Benghazi, in Libya's east, rebels pouring out of the western Nafusa Mountains — backed by French weaponry and American and British intelligence — were imperative in the fall of Tripoli and the overthrow of Gaddafi. Vadewalle asserted that regional loyalty often supersedes tribal and even religious loyalties. The NTC must manage geographic rivalries to maintain a stable Libya. Vadewalle also expressed concern about the destabilizing effects of militia activity in Libya. During an August trip to Benghazi, Vadewalle noticed a lack of discipline and conflicting loyalties among its militias, which could foster multiple, competing power bases in the new Libya. Vadewalle stressed that it is important for the NTC to exercise a legitimate “monopoly on violence” in Libya and control all loose weaponry in the country—especially the thousands of SA-7 shoulder fired missile launchers which could be used by terrorists to shoot down commercial aircraft and attack state institutions. Establishing incentives to facilitate the collection of weapons and the cooperation of tribes is crucial to the NTC's success. The tension surrounding the assassination of rebel commander Gen. Abdel Fatah Younis on July 28 also threatens the unity of the new government. NTC Chairman Mustafa Abdul Jalil declined to publicly disclose the results of the investigation into Younis's death. The general's powerful tribe, the Obeidi, has demanded the release of the inquiry. Libya cannot remain peaceful without the support of the Obeidi and the NTC must assuage the concerns of the tribe to ensure the stability of the country. Finally, constructive relations with the international community are essential to win the peace in Libya. Although Turkey attempted to lead negotiations between Gaddafi and the rebels at the outset of hostilities, Gaddafi rejected its offer and Ankara played a minor role throughout the remainder of the conflict. Vadewalle argued that Turkey must leverage its growing influence in the region to maintain stability in Libya during the coming months and years. Additionally, the United Nations should work to promote respect for basic human rights and ensure the safety of women and sub-Saharan Africans, many of whom were unfairly accused of working as mercenaries for Gaddafi and subjected to widespread violence. Vadewalle warned that a power vacuum would lead to an increase in “vigilante justice” and urged the international community to work with the NTC to protect disadvantaged communities. The international community can also help rebuild Libya's economy. Although the oil industry will be crucial to future prosperity, foreign businesses and consultants must work to diversify Libya's economy so it does not become entirely dependent on the energy sector like Saudi Arabia and Iraq. The exclusion of China—the NTC announced that Chinese oil firms will be at a disadvantage while competing for Libyan contracts due to Beijing's failure to support the rebels in the UN Security Council—provides Western businesses an excellent opportunity to invest in Libya and reconstitute its battered infrastructure. Additionally, millions of Libyans depend on governmental largesse to meet their daily financial obligations. Vadewalle suggested maintaining this support to help Libyans rebuild their lives and prevent the formation economically marginalized insurgent organizations. The creation of an outstanding education system is also essential to future economic growth. Although Libya's literacy rate of 88 percent is among the highest in Africa, its schools and universities are far below international standards. Additionally, Gaddafi's ban on English instruction placed an entire generation of Libyans at a tremendous disadvantage vis-à-vis foreign students. International efforts to bolster Libya's educational system are fundamental to integrating it into the global economy, ensuring its competitiveness and maintaining stability in Libya. BM
