Front Page
Politics
Economy
International
Sports
Society
Culture
Videos
Newspapers
Ahram Online
Al-Ahram Weekly
Albawaba
Almasry Alyoum
Amwal Al Ghad
Arab News Agency
Bikya Masr
Daily News Egypt
FilGoal
The Egyptian Gazette
Youm7
Subject
Author
Region
f
t
مصرس
CIB signs MoU with SAS Institute to enhance university students' skills, experience
Banque Misr launches third edition of Teqdar programme to support entrepreneurs, startups
Egypt, Yemen reaffirm strategic ties, stress Red Sea security concerns
264 days of targeting civilians in Gaza by Israeli aircraft
Taiwan's ASE Technology to expands chip packaging in US, Mexico
China's carbon market sees price increase on Wednesday
European stocks surge amid ECB rate cut speculation
Australia's CPI rises by 4.0% in May
Gold muted ahead of key US inflation data
EU supports € 650b plan for cities to achieve net zero by '30
GAFI hosts Egyptian-British Business Forum to discuss new investments in eco-friendly infrastructure
Sweilem leads Egyptian delegation to South Sudan for high-level talks, project launches
Somalia faces dire humanitarian crisis amidst Al-Shabaab threat, UN warns
Egypt, South Sudan strengthen water cooperation
Joyaux collaborates with IGI to certify luxury jewellery
Sharm El-Sheikh International Hospital leads in medical tourism revenues for 2023/2024
33 family tombs unearthed in Aswan reveal secrets of Late Period, Greco-Roman eras
Egypt's Ministry of Agriculture plants 3.1 million trees under presidential initiative
First NBA Basketball school in Africa to launch in Egypt
Central Agency for Reconstruction develops Fustat Hills Park in Cairo
Exploring Riyadh's Historical Sites and Cultural Gems
BRICS Skate Cup: Skateboarders from Egypt, 22 nations gather in Russia
Pharaohs Edge Out Burkina Faso in World Cup qualifiers Thriller
Egypt's EDA, Zambia sign collaboration pact
Amwal Al Ghad Awards 2024 announces Entrepreneurs of the Year
Egyptian President asks Madbouly to form new government, outlines priorities
Egypt's President assigns Madbouly to form new government
Egypt to build 58 hospitals by '25
Swiss freeze on Russian assets dwindles to $6.36b in '23
Egyptian public, private sectors off on Apr 25 marking Sinai Liberation
Debt swaps could unlock $100b for climate action
Financial literacy becomes extremely important – EGX official
Euro area annual inflation up to 2.9% – Eurostat
BYD، Brazil's Sigma Lithium JV likely
UNESCO celebrates World Arabic Language Day
Motaz Azaiza mural in Manchester tribute to Palestinian journalists
Russia says it's in sync with US, China, Pakistan on Taliban
It's a bit frustrating to draw at home: Real Madrid keeper after Villarreal game
Shoukry reviews with Guterres Egypt's efforts to achieve SDGs, promote human rights
Sudan says countries must cooperate on vaccines
Johnson & Johnson: Second shot boosts antibodies and protection against COVID-19
Egypt to tax bloggers, YouTubers
Egypt's FM asserts importance of stability in Libya, holding elections as scheduled
We mustn't lose touch: Muller after Bayern win in Bundesliga
Egypt records 36 new deaths from Covid-19, highest since mid June
Egypt sells $3 bln US-dollar dominated eurobonds
Gamal Hanafy's ceramic exhibition at Gezira Arts Centre is a must go
Italian Institute Director Davide Scalmani presents activities of the Cairo Institute for ITALIANA.IT platform
Thank you for reporting!
This image will be automatically disabled when it gets reported by several people.
OK
What Tunisia proved and disproved
Michele Dunne
Published in
Almasry Alyoum
on 19 - 01 - 2011
The
Tunisian
uprising raises so many questions that it is difficult to focus on only one or two, but one of the intriguing aspects of the January 2011 events is that they simultaneously strengthened and smashed several longstanding pieces of conventional wisdom about how political change might come to Arab countries.
Tunisia
showed that the youth bulge about which demographers and other analysts have been fretting for two decades is indeed a political time bomb. At the same time,
Tunisia
debunked the long-held analysis that only a country with a cohesive political opposition can overthrow an authoritarian system.
The
Tunisian
uprising was rooted in the problems of youth unemployment, though it leapt quickly from there to protests about official corruption and lack of democracy. The Middle East youth bulge—generally defined as a period in which there is a relatively high proportion of 15 to 24 year olds among the adult population of any country—and its attendant problems of youth unemployment, overburdened educational systems, and the postponement of marriage have preoccupied scholars of the region since at least the early 1990s. Looking at the experience of other regions, scholars reasonably enough theorized that the youth bulge could lead to political instability in the Middle East. Demographer Ragui Assaad, for example, said in a 2008 interview that “The presence of large number of underemployed and frustrated young men, with potential access to weapons, is often a recipe for civil conflict. Thus the youth bulge could provide significant demographic dividends, but if not dealt with the right policies, could result in political instability and civil conflict.”
Connecting the youth bulge with political instability in theory is one thing, however, and seeing it actually unfold on the streets of an Arab country is quite another. It is the painful similarities between
Tunisia
and other Arab countries in this regard that give pause. The percentage of
Tunisians
between 15 and 24—21 percent in 2005—is quite similar to that in
Algeria
,
Morocco
,
Libya
,
Egypt
,
Jordan
, and other Arab countries. Although figures often are unreliable, a 2007 analysis by Assaad and Farzaneh Roudi-Fahimi estimated youth unemployment for these countries to be between 20 and 40 percent, and then in addition there is rampant underemployment. Certainly the other grievances of
Tunisians—corruption
, human rights abuses, lack of meaningful political participation, a leader who twisted the country's laws and constitution in order to remain in power for an entire generation—are widely shared in the region.
Until the recent events in
Tunisia
, however, the theory went that even with all those reasons for public discontent, no Arab population could overthrow an authoritarian leader without a cohesive opposition movement. Analysts cited the weakness of political parties in the Arab world as one of the main reasons for the persistence of authoritarian governments. And yet the
Tunisian
opposition was among the weakest in the Arab world: none of the three small opposition parties (the Democratic Progressive Party, Renewal Movement, and the Democratic Forum for Labor and Liberties) that initially joined the transitional government, nor the exiled Islamist Renaissance (Nahda) Party, played a significant role in the uprising. They certainly did not form a cohesive front capable of putting pressure on the government, and none of their leaders are charismatic figures who inspired protestors. Nor did labor unions, professional syndicates, or other organizations fill the organizational role in a major way. And so it apparently is possible for a population to put enough pressure on an Arab authoritarian leader to step down even if it lacks strong opposition organizations and compelling leadership.
Tunisia
has its own peculiarities—a population prosperous and educated enough to have high expectations, more equality of the sexes than exists in other Arab countries, and a relatively weak Islamist political movement—that undoubtedly contributed to the fact that the Jasmine Revolution occurred there and not elsewhere, and that it had a strikingly liberal and secular countenance. It is far from certain where
Tunisia
will go from here, and whether the country will move smoothly from a revolution with relatively little bloodshed to a truly democratic political system.
Still, whatever happens from now on, the
Tunisians
have taught all observers at least three unforgettable lessons: first, widespread economic grievances such as youth unemployment can indeed quickly translate into specific demands for political change, and second, this can happen even in the absence of strong opposition organizations. The third lesson of
Tunisia
's Jasmine Revolution was perhaps the most memorable of all: when long-postponed change finally comes, it is often startling how relatively little effort and time it can take.
Michele Dunne is editor of the Arab Reform Bulletin and a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. This article is published by agreement with the Arab Reform Bulleting, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, © 2011.
Clic
here
to read the story from its source.
Related stories
Sunday''s Papers: Tunisia in Egypt
One issue solved
Questions of Activity: Citizen, Participant at Darb 1718
Egypt must act on Sudan
Egypt respects Tunisian people's choice
Report inappropriate advertisement