The dust may have settled in Annapolis, but not in the Middle East. Dina Ezzat examines the aftermath of a controversial peace meeting Arab and Israeli delegates who took part in the Annapolis diplomatic fiesta should be coming down from the excitement of the world-observed event to the sad truth of reality on the ground: continued Israeli occupation of Arab territories faced by a mix of deep resentment and outright resistance. The Israeli delegation, however, is coming back with a victory: photos and signs of nascent normalisation with Arab countries and promises, declared and undeclared, of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Israel and member states of the Arab League. Over half of the Arab League's 22 states were represented, mostly at the foreign ministers level, in Annapolis. The participation of Saudi Foreign Minister Saud Al-Faisal, in particular, is a success story for the Israelis, despite the fact that Saudi envoy Prince Bandar Bin Sultan turned up at the 1991 Madrid peace conference and that Saudi delegates were present at some rounds of talks launched as part of the Madrid process. Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa, whose organisation is in theory the custodian of the Arab boycott of Israel pending a comprehensive and final peace deal, was also there. Moussa, who said he was attending under the umbrella of the Arab Peace Initiative and a "no normalisation before peace" understanding, is the first of the six secretary-generals of the Arab organisation to sit down at the same table with Israeli negotiators. Hamas and many Arab public quarters expressed shock and dismay at the wide Arab participation and declined to accept the rationale offered by Moussa's speech in Annapolis that this participation is designed to support the Palestinian delegation and to impress upon the international community that it must act to secure at least some preliminary Arab demands, especially a freeze on Israeli settlement construction in the occupied Palestinian territories. Meanwhile, Israeli and US officials praised the wide Arab participation, especially by countries with no diplomatic relations with Israel. In his opening ceremony speech, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert addressed present Arab -- as well as Islamic -- delegations and demanded normal relations with them. The demand had been repeatedly pressed on the eve of Annapolis and was seconded by Bush's inaugural speech. ISRAELI GAINS ABOUND: The Israeli delegation is also coming back with renewed US acknowledgement of Israel as a "Jewish state" and "homeland for the Jewish people", as affirmed three times by US President George W Bush in his inaugural speech Tuesday. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas warmly applauded the Bush speech. In his speech that followed he did not object to the characterisation of the "Jewish nature of Israel" nor its impact on the fate of 1948 Palestinians and the right of return of Palestinian refugees. Sources in Annapolis tell Al-Ahram Weekly that only a constrained Arab rejection of such characterisation was offered in the closed meetings that followed the opening. Also in the bag for the Israeli delegation coming back from Annapolis is a televised promise of Abbas that his authorities will do whatever it takes to combat all forms of "terrorism" against the state of Israel in line with the roadmap plan for peace. "Unless otherwise agreed by the parties, implementation of the future peace treaty will be subject to the implementation of the roadmap, as judged by the United States," read a joint statement adopted in Annapolis. Abbas, who albeit referred to continued Israeli occupation as the main cause behind "terrorism", added with a nod to a proud Olmert and smiling Bush that any act of "terror", irrespective of its rationale, remains inexcusable though international law affirms the right to resist belligerent occupation by all means, including armed struggle. An informed American think-tank analyst told the Weekly from Washington that the US administration reassured Olmert, over and over, that a Palestinian state would not come to life until Israel is sure that Palestinian leaders -- be it President Abbas or someone else -- would be able to properly run such a state in line with Israel's security agenda. Any future Palestinian state, Bush said in his opening speech, should be able to contribute to the security of its people, of Israel, and that of the entire region. Meanwhile, US/international promises of involvement in advancing Palestinian/Arab-Israeli talks were traded for Arab promises to advance signs of normalisation with Israel, instead of waiting for the conclusion of a comprehensive peace as stipulated by the Arab Peace Initiative. "Arabs need to get off the fence and understand that normalisation is not a prize for Israel," Tzipi Livni, Israeli foreign minister said in Annapolis. In Annapolis too, the foreign minister of Bahrain said that a request made by his Israeli counterpart for diplomatic relations between Manama and Tel Aviv would be considered in the wake of Annapolis. As such, the conditions set by Moussa -- and for that matter Al-Faisal -- on linking normalisation with a comprehensive peace deal were directly challenged in Annapolis -- despite the fact that both Arab diplomats declined to pause for cameras and handshake shots with Israeli officials. Moreover, statements made by Syrian officials suggesting that their delegation would firmly oppose any premature signs of normalisation were simply overruled. Even more alarmingly, informed diplomatic sources told the Weekly that Olmert gained Palestinian and Arab assurances that only the symbolic return of a few hundred refugees would be included in a final status agreement. One source suggested that Canada is heavily involved in an accommodation plan for the majority of refugees that will be presented when the time is ripe. Moreover, Arab diplomats privately said that several Arab capitals, including many those directly involved in the Arab-Israeli negotiations process, believe it "a waste of time" to dispute the "Jewish nature of Israel". As for East Jerusalem, Arabs are aware that as they were affirming their participation in Annapolis, the Israeli Knesset adopted a resolution stipulating that any change on the unified nature of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel would require the approval of 80 -- up from 61 -- of the 120 Knesset members. In Annapolis, Olmert declined to grant his host's wish to launch final status talks in Washington, DC -- not even an elementary negotiations round would be allowed -- only a ceremonial inauguration was granted by the Israeli prime minister. It is back in the Middle East, Olmert said, that negotiations would start, on a bilateral level. According to the Annapolis joint statement, the first session of negotiations shall take place on 12 December. Indeed, the maximum that Olmert gave in Annapolis was to sit quietly while Abbas made his speech and demanded a negotiated deal on core issues, as perceived by the Palestinian side, including a reference to East Jerusalem as the capital of a Palestinian state "that will be open to West Jerusalem" and a reference to UN General Assembly Resolution 194 on the right of return, or to compensation, for Palestinian refugees of 1948. Indeed, the joint statement of Annapolis does not make even a reference to an end of Israeli occupation of territories seized in 1967, or the land-for-peace principal that used to be the guideline of Arab-Israeli negotiations. The reference made in the statement to the loose 2008 deadline for the settlement of final status issues is as non-committal as it could be: "We agree to engage in vigorous, ongoing and continuous negotiations and shall make every effort to conclude an agreement before the end of 2008." The Israeli delegation, meanwhile, is coming back having made a loose promise to ease adverse conditions for Palestinians on the ground, though always in line with the Israeli security priorities that were re-acknowledged by the Annapolis meeting. In establishing those security priorities, Olmert said clearly that he would not exclude the liquidation of wanted Palestinian militants -- in other words, targeted assassinations -- nor would he eschew military intervention in principle. On the eve of Annapolis, Israeli occupation forces killed six Palestinians. EMPTY ARAB HANDS: In contrast to the Israelis, Arab delegates are coming back with mere assurances of US/international support for Palestinian-Israeli final status talks, as well as possible negotiations on the Syrian/Lebanese tracks. US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice promised to exert a similar level of effort to that in the lead up to Annapolis. Such promises, however, are not coupled with a commitment to intervene should Israel fail to live up to the requirements of peacemaking. "However, we are coming back to a different political context. It is a context whereby the clinically dead Palestinian and Israeli negotiation process is coming back to life. We are now talking about final status negotiations," commented a senior Arab diplomat who participated in Annapolis. In statements on the eve of and during Annapolis, Bush, Rice and every American diplomat stated in no uncertain terms that no imposition would be put on Israel to undertake measures deemed incompatible with its security priorities and "Jewish nature". Avigdor Lieberman, Israeli strategic interests minister, summed up Annapolis with remarkable candour: it was "a terrific cocktail party and a fantastic photo opportunity with no chance of a breakthrough". One additional secured outcome for the Israeli delegation was restated US-Israeli agreement on the need to step up pressure on, and perhaps even opt for military action to halt, Iran's nuclear activities. Moreover, agreement was affirmed between Israel and the US, with the support of some Arab delegations, on the need for further regional cooperation to contain pro-Iranian groups, especially Hamas and Hizbullah, who joined Tehran this week in rejecting Annapolis as a futile exercise in submission. If it can be called a success, Arabs are coming back with promises by the international community -- especially usually generous European donors -- that financial support would be promptly offered to the Palestinian Authority (PA) for "early state institutions building", with an unmistakable emphasis laid on bolstering -- and likely reforming -- the PA's security apparatus to ensure that it effectively implement the demands of Phase I of the 2003 roadmap plan: curtail Islamist militant resistance groups. Palestinian/Arab demands of a total freeze on Israeli settlements, an end to changes on the ground in East Jerusalem, and a firm and detailed international commitment to a more comprehensive peace process, were all but overlooked in Annapolis. Meanwhile, the situation in the occupied Palestinian territories is worsening. An already suffocated and starved Gaza is under threat of collective punishment by Israel in its plans to deny the impoverished Strip significant power supplies within a few days. Karen Abu Zayd, head of the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), said she hoped a high- stakes Israeli-Palestinian peace conference in Annapolis would improve living conditions in Gaza. She added that the UN wanted to see a neutral body monitoring crossings in and out of the occupied Palestinian territories. "One thing we can say hopefully about Annapolis is that this is an internationalisation of the problem," she told a European Parliament committee. "Let us hope that something comes out of [Annapolis] to show that." Abu Zayd described new Israeli restrictions on movement in the West Bank, requiring Palestinians, including UNRWA staff, to obtain crossing permits and to enter and leave East Jerusalem on foot through mechanised terminals, as "crippling". Hamas, provoked by and critical of the decision of Abbas to go to Annapolis without prior consultations with its leaders or those of other "opposition" Palestinian factions, is qualifying the Annapolis meeting as an attempt to encroach on legitimate Palestinian rights, especially in relation to East Jerusalem and the fate of refugees. The Palestinian people are not forced to honour any commitments that Palestinian negotiators make in Annapolis, Hamas leaders said this week during meetings in Gaza. Wider Arab public opinion is not particularly supportive of Annapolis or its outcome either. Extensive live coverage carried by Arab satellite channels and polls conducted by many Internet sites reflected hardly any hope that the Annapolis meeting would stem the misery of the daily lives of Palestinians, much less kick-start final status talks. Still, Abbas called it "an opportunity that might not occur again". POST-ANNAPOLIS STRATEGY: In a report issued on the eve of Annapolis, the International Crisis Group (ICG) acknowledged the regional and international political difficulties that are likely to defy the chances of building on whatever political momentum the Annapolis meeting secured to advance the seven-year stalled negotiations process. "The process that [was] launched [in] Annapolis may not quite be do-or-die for the Israeli- Palestinian peace process, but at the very least it is do-or-barely-survive," argued the ICG report, entitled The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: Annapolis and After. "To maximise the chances of success and minimise the costs of failure, the Israelis and Palestinians need to seriously confront permanent status issues, while taking steps to improve the situation on the ground," argued the report. It added that the "US and other international actors need to adopt a more proactive role, proposing timely compromises as well as imposing accountability for both sides' actions." The report suggested, moreover, the need for "a different approach towards those [principally Syria and Hamas] whose exclusion jeopardises any progress." "While virtually all attention has been given to [the Annapolis] gathering itself, what truly matters is what follows it," the ICG report stated. The "day after" Annapolis may bring the beginning of final status talks between Palestinians and Israelis, and may even bolster chances for wider Arab-Israeli talks. However, the report warns that failure to build on post-Annapolis momentum could effectively risk the entire Arab-Israeli peace process. "The stakes are extremely high. Failure of this process could discredit both the Palestinian and Israeli leaderships while further undermining faith in negotiations," said Ezzeddine Choukri-Fischere, director of the ICG's Arab-Israeli Project, focussing on the peace process. "Our report argues that Annapolis has been through a number of lives; it started as an institution-building conference, developed into a political conference that was supposed to [and eventually did] endorse an Israeli-Palestinian document, and then became a launching pad for permanent status negotiations between Israel and the [Palestinians]," said Choukri-Fischere. "Now that we have Annapolis shaped as a launching pad for peace talks, we think it is important that a number of things happen in Annapolis and immediately after." According to Choukri-Fischere, the first requirement for a successful post- Annapolis process is to design a negotiation process that maximises the chances of success, ensuring "active involvement by the international community and the Arab world, and thinking of a fall- back strategy in case parties get stuck in bilateral talks." Second, Choukri-Fischere argued that it is "of vital importance that Palestinian national dialogue starts without further delay". "It is unthinkable that we push for peace between Israel and only a part of the Palestinian political landscape, or -- as some would say -- between Israel and the Palestinians against other Palestinians," he argued. According to Choukri-Fischere, if Annapolis is perceived as an attempt to undermine Hamas the latter will have an interest in fighting it. "We want the opposite to happen. We want Hamas to have a stake in the success of peace talks after Annapolis," he said. Finally, the ICG is calling for the substantive engagement of Syria on the basis that the ultimate objective is an Arab-Israeli peace, not merely an Israeli-Palestinian peace. "I am glad that the US administration has recently made changes in order to make room for Syrian participation. This is a good beginning and I hope both Syria and the US build on it," Choukri-Fischere said. Choukri-Fischere added that post-Annapolis also requires inward Arab coordination: "The ICG is recommending to Arab states that they lay down a vision for the future: What will they do if Israel and the [Palestinians] make serious progress towards an agreement? What steps would they take towards Israel if the latter signed a permanent peace agreement? When and how would Arab states decide that their 'conditions' for normalisation are met?" According to the ICG report, despite the many obstacles ahead, there remains at least some hope. "I think [we must] follow closely Palestinian-Israeli negotiations in the coming few months, and see what the dynamic is," Choukri-Fischere said. "In three or four months from now we will be able to detect how serious the parties are and how involved the partners are," he added. DOWN TO REALITY: Judging by statements made at the opening ceremony in Annapolis, and by the language of letters of invitation forwarded by the US to Arab participants, including Palestinian participants, none of the criteria that the ICG suggested is necessary for progress is likely to be met. US involvement will not go beyond that of "facilitator", with an obvious bias towards Israel. Pressure on Olmert will be minimal, both from the US and the international community. Hamas will continue to be marginalised according to the wishes of Abbas and Olmert, each for different reasons. Syria may emerge as the only possible progress out of Annapolis, as predicted by the ICG. "It is somewhat ironic, but at the end of the day it might be Syria, who was reluctant about taking part in the meeting, that would come out as the real winner of Annapolis," commented one Arab diplomat on condition of anonymity. According to this diplomat, if the Israelis feel they can make progress on the Syrian track -- which is embraced by the Israeli cabinet -- the Palestinian track may be put again on the backburner for an indefinite period. Speaking to the Weekly as the Annapolis meetings were drawing to a close, Choukri-Fischere argued that the US-hosted peace conference offered "positive signs but an incomplete work". "We heard talk about the international intervention and about the follow-up mechanism. We saw Syria present and we heard that a meeting to be hosted by Russia [by the spring of] next year would follow up on the Palestinian-Israeli track and address more attention to the Syrian-Israeli track. These are good signs," he said. However, he hastened to add, "what matters now is to see that there is sufficient substance to these [gestures] which should not be [reduced to mere political] ornaments." Moreover, the director of the ICG peace project expressed worry over the continued marginalisation of Hamas, but added that this concern could be addressed through an endeavour to induce national Palestinian reconciliation. Meanwhile, Arab peace process diplomats say that while the Americans are not blind to the many difficulties embedded in the Arab-Israeli struggle, they still want some progress, if only to cover up for miserable US failure in Afghanistan and Iraq. "When Bush went for his war on Iraq against the advice of those who called for a settlement of the Middle East situation first, he argued that the road to Jerusalem is through Baghdad. Today, it seems that he is taking the reverse road," commented one diplomat. Indeed, for the Bush administration, a semblance of movement on the Palestinian-Israeli front could help gear up support for a potential military strike against Iran. "The most worrisome part is that it is not just Iran that qualifies for the US's 'extremists' list. Hamas and Hizbullah are also there, and this could mean an open confrontation between Hamas, which rejects Annapolis, and Abbas, who is very keen on Annapolis," commented one diplomat. In this sense, commented the same diplomat, "the day after" Annapolis could be a day of Palestinian bloodshed, "and may even end the legitimacy of the Palestine Liberation Organisation, chaired by Abbas," and witness the rise of the resistance approach, as epitomised by "both Hamas and the Islamic Jihad". Were this to happen, the "difficulties" Bush predicted in his speech to lie ahead, may be of a wholly new order.
