Pakistan's President Musharraf has promised his people free and fair elections -- after ensuring that they can't be, writes Graham Usher in Islamabad On 15 December Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf revoked the 42-day state of emergency he had imposed on his country. In a televised address, Pakistan's new "civilianised" leader promised "absolutely free and transparent" elections on 8 January 2008 and invited "any number of observers to monitor these elections". He said the emergency had had two objectives, both of which were now accomplished. The first was to combat a Taliban-inspired insurgency, radiating from the Afghan-Pakistan tribal borderlands to more settled areas like Swat in the North West Frontier Province (NWFP). "I can proudly say the back of the terrorists has been broken in Swat," said Musharraf. Second, the emergency had enabled the government to foil a "well-thought out conspiracy... by elements of the judiciary" to "destabilise" the country. The "conspiracy" had been the Supreme Court's imminent decision to rule unconstitutional Musharraf's presidential election in October on the grounds that an army chief of staff, who Musharraf then was, could not again contest political office. Musharraf has since taken off his uniform. "I have saved the nation from crisis," he said. Swat has also been pacified more or less -- courtesy of 20,000 extra troops and the death of 400 people, including perhaps 100 civilians. But the claim that Pakistan has broken the back of the Taliban insurgency is vainglorious. In seven days before and after the emergency was repealed there were four suicide attacks on the army, leaving more than 20 dead. Nor are the reprisals likely to end. On 14 December a new centralised organisation was set up to unite Taliban forces throughout the tribal areas and NWFP. It warned the army to call off the Swat and other operations or else face a "defensive jihad" against "Pakistani forces everywhere". It also pledged to join with the Afghan Taliban against NATO and enforce the Sharia "in areas we control" in the tribal areas and NWFP. Musharraf's second objective was more thoroughly done. Not only was the emergency used to detain nearly 5,000 lawyers and purge the judiciary of 49 senior judges, including Pakistan Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohamed Chaudhry. Musharraf further rigged Pakistan's already mangled constitution to prevent future legal challenges to his rule. These include the "permanent" retirement of the sacked judges. Finally, Musharraf has clamped draconian new curbs on what had been a relatively independent media, including heavy fines and three-year imprisonment for any journalist or station broadcasting "defamation or ridicule of the head of state". Neither the new constitutional amendments nor restrictions can be rescinded, say government spokesmen. The Pakistan people "have never been so helpless in shaping their political destiny," editorialised the mainstream Dawn newspaper on 17 December. Washington, London and Delhi all welcomed the end of martial law, with British Prime Minister Gordon Brown saying it marked "another significant step towards the return of full constitutional order". He "also told President Musharraf the international community supports his wish to hold free and fair elections on 8 January". Brown said nothing about the sacked judges. Neither did opposition leader and former prime minister, Benazir Bhutto. With a raft of corruption cases pending against her, Bhutto wants an independent judiciary in Pakistan about as much as Musharraf. Her greater fear is massive electoral fraud on 8 January, with a quisling local government, docile judiciary and ubiquitous intelligence agencies all acting to do the president's bidding. Such fears are real, admits a diplomatic source. "We know the elections won't be free and fair. We just hope they're something better than 2002". The 2002 elections were stacked in favour of pro-Musharraf parties and condemned as "deeply flawed" by European Union monitors. Some EU countries may not dispatch observers this time round. Pakistan's other main opposition leader, Nawaz Sharif, said the emergency was lifted under "foreign pressure". And while his Muslim League faction has now called off its threat to boycott the poll, he has made restoration of the judiciary and the ousting of Musharraf the cornerstones of its campaign. Both are popular calls. A poll released on 13 December found that 67 per cent of Pakistanis wanted Musharraf to resign and 77 per cent wanted the pre- emergency Supreme Court judges reinstated. That sentiment is currently embodied in Pakistan's small but restive civil society. Lawyers, students and a handful of political parties have called for a boycott of the 8 January suffrage unless the judiciary is restored. They intend to kick off the campaign in Islamabad with a mass march from the Supreme Court to judges' residential enclave, both still thickets of police, guns and barricades. In his televised address Musharraf urged his people "not to follow those who agitate". But agitation and the shadow of the deposed judges will continue to follow these elections and for one reason, says Zaffarullah Khan, a lawyer. "You can't have democracy with a dismantled judiciary."
