Dina Ezzat examines the chances for Amr Moussa to go back to Beirut and deliver reconciliation Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa has made no announcement -- and maybe no plans -- as to when he is going to Beirut for yet another round of mediation to help conflicting Lebanese political factions select their president, form a new government and draft a new legislative election law in a manner that will accommodate the conflicting political views. On Sunday, in the wake of a Lebanon focussed extraordinary meeting of Arab foreign ministers at the Cairo headquarters of the Arab League, Moussa seemed unsure of his next step. At this point it seems that it is all but useless for Moussa to return to Beirut for another round of shuttle diplomacy. The ingredients for agreement among the parties are still lacking, the secretary- general recognised in a press conference following the ministerial meeting. However, Moussa, as he seemed to acknowledge during the press conference, cannot afford to abandon the Lebanese mediation at a time where violent confrontations are hitting Lebanon. The Arab League secretary-general had just spent five days in Lebanon trying to promote an agreement based on the text of an Arab initiative drafted in Cairo earlier this month with the consent of the foreign ministers of Syria, Saudi Arabia and Egypt the key Arab countries with direct involvement in the Lebanese file. Moussa was unsuccessful. A disagreement between the political majority camp, chaired by Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Al-Siniora, and the opposition, chaired by the widely popular and influential Shia resistance group Hizbullah over the exact interpretation of the text in relation to the share of the cabinet seats each camp is entitled to blocked agreement. In the eyes of the opposition, Moussa's reading of the text -- which seemed to exclude equal shares for each camp -- was a clear sign of bias towards the majority, supported not just by Egypt and Saudi Arabia but also by key Western players, including the US and France in face of the opposition supported by Syria and Iran. According to the opposition press statements, neither Moussa nor the ministerial meeting that convened on Sunday managed to offer a clear explanation of the text that it finds "ambiguous". And according to the majority camp, it is out of the question that it would agree to equal shares or that it would allow the opposition one third plus one share of the cabinet seats on the basis that this hijacks the ability of the government to administer state affairs. Worse, the deliberations conducted on Sunday during and on the fringe of the ministerial meeting show that text of the Arab initiative which was projected as a breakthrough of Arab reconciliation does not mean one and the same thing for those who drafted it. Informed sources say that judging by the exchanges between Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Al-Moallem and his Egyptian and Saudi counterparts Ahmed Abul-Gheit and Saud Al-Faissal, the disagreement on government shares is bound to block the overdue election of the Lebanese Army Chief Michel Suleiman as president of Lebanon. "The longer the vacancy at the seat of the president in Lebanon, the graver the threats are for Lebanese security. This is something that [almost all] members of the foreign ministers meeting agreed upon," said Al-Taiyb Louh, head of the Algerian delegation to the ministerial meeting who co-chaired the session with Moussa. Sources say that firm Syrian opposition blocked a proposal jointly made by Egypt and Saudi Arabia, with the consent of Moussa, to include a communiqué issued by the Sunday ministerial meeting "demanding that the Lebanese parliament convene on 11 February", the date suggested by Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament Nabih Berri in the opposition camp to elect Suleiman and end a close to three-month vacancy at the presidential seat. "But there is a tentative agreement that Al-Moallem is taking back to Damascus that this date is crucial," commented one Arab delegate who took part in the meeting. If this date is missed, Moussa all but warned at the Sunday press conference, Arab countries will have to take a new and clear position. Syrian officials in Cairo acknowledge the "firm interest" that the Saudis and Egyptians showed in the selection of Suleiman by 11 February but they say that "no dates are sacred". What is sacred, they argue, "is for Moussa to strike a fair deal that accommodates the concerns of both parties on the basis of a written set of guarantees." The mere fact that Moussa is insisting on a deadline for the selection of the Lebanese president and that he is sending direct and indirect messages to the concerned political Lebanese players suggesting that he is "not going to be used to prolong an endless tug of war" is already exerting some pressure. The question, however, is whether or not such pressure is necessarily conducive to a settlement or rather leading to the failure of the so-called Arab initiative? Syrian diplomats say that Damascus is not going to twist the arm of the Lebanese opposition to agree on a deal that it finds unsatisfactory. They even insist that Damascus is not in position to do this even if it wanted to. They add that Cairo and Riyadh need to encourage the majority to show flexibility. But this has already been pushed to the limit, according to sympathetic Arab sources. "This is the main problem. The mood for a reconciliatory agreement is still lacking in Lebanon," commented Moussa. According to a report that Moussa presented to the Arab foreign ministers regarding his five-day mission in Lebanon earlier in the month, the majority camp was more open during the talks he held in Beirut. While Moussa made only an implicit recognition of the flexibility of the Lebanese majority camp, he is now viewed in a negative light by some of the leading opposition figures. As such, it is useless for Moussa to go back to Lebanon unless a new political dynamism is created. Qatari Foreign Minister Hamad Ben Jassim promised to use his good relations with Damascus to encourage more Syrian support for flexibility by the Lebanese opposition. For his part, the Omani Foreign Minister Youssef Ben Alawi has also offered to intervene to start a serious effort to mediate a long rift between the Saudi Monarch King Abdullah and Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad. Many Arab diplomats say that for the Lebanese crisis to be resolved there has to be an end to this Syrian-Saudi rift, blamed primarily on Assad's open criticism of Abdullah and other Arab leaders and on the alleged involvement of Syria in wrecking Lebanon's fragile inner peace with the assassination of Lebanese leader Rafik Al-Hariri in February 2005. The Saudi monarch and other top Arab leaders have indicated reluctance to attend a regular annual Arab summit scheduled to be held and chaired by Syria in March should the Lebanese crisis defy a resolution, especially in relation to the election of a president. Syria has indicated interest to avoid another wave of tension in its Arab relations but has yet to show it will go the extra mile to rescue the Damascus Summit either from cancellation or under- representation of Arab leaders. "It is certainly in the interest of Lebanon to see a Syria-Saudi reconciliation at least started. But this is not really the full answer," commented an informed Arab diplomat. The answer, he argued, is in the ability of Moussa to bring about not just a Syria-Saudi rapport but also to induce confidence between majority and opposition leaders in Lebanon so that each side would not be skeptical that the other is planning to hijack Lebanon either as a hostage of the US Middle East plans or of Iran-Syria regional conflicts. So far, Moussa has given no indication that this is a mission that he could deliver on.
