Mired in turmoil and complexities, Iraq is looking for foreign investments to rebuild, but will it succeed, asks Saif Nasrawi Iraqi Finance Minister Bayan Jabr has said that his war- devastated nation is in dire need of some $400 billion in foreign investment to rebuild its infrastructure. Speaking at a meeting in Cairo last week to probe investment opportunities in Iraq, Jabr said most of the money is needed in infrastructure projects such as roads, bridges, housing, water and power plants. "This is what we need in order to rebuild Iraq and put it back among the ranks of developed countries," said Jabr. Hundreds of Iraqi, Arab and foreign entrepreneurs gathered in Cairo Thursday and Friday to review business opportunities in Iraq which so far has been deterred by the severe lack of security, a weak government, an absence of political reconciliation, regional tension, and administrative corruption. Iraqi Vice-President Adil Abdul-Mahdi expressed hope that these presentations would convince Egyptian entrepreneurs to invest in Iraq. "We saw some good signs that many businessmen are now willing to come to Iraq and have business there," Abdul-Mahdi told Al-Ahram Weekly. "They will certainly see a different Iraq than the one they hear about in the media," he said. The meeting is the second of a series of meetings planned by the Iraqi government to lure foreign investment. Last year a similar meeting in Dubai focussed on the development of Iraq's all-important engineering and oil services industry as well as overcoming the media stereotypes of the country. Yet there are few signs that Arab entrepreneurs are ready to take the risk and do business in a country which is still mired in violence. Even those who are willing prefer to do business from afar. "Once I can see security prevail in Baghdad to allow Iraqi and American officials walk around, I will feel confident that I can do business there," one businessman told the Weekly. Later, the Iraqis moved their campaign to the World Economic Forum on the Middle East in Sharm El-Sheik. Abdul- Mahdi, Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Barham Saleh and Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari tried to persuade foreign investors that it is safe now to do business in their country. They point out two recent significant developments: the continuing military operation to root out Al-Qaeda from northern Iraq and a joint Iraqi-American security agreement to be signed this summer. Zebari said negotiations to conclude the security agreement with the US, that will pave the way for a long-term US troop presence after most forces withdraw from Iraq, are in progress and could be concluded by July. But another top Iraqi official at the forum acknowledged hurdles in the talks and said the signing might take a longer time to formalise. One of the sticking points is the role of American troops in the future, he said. Another issue still under discussion is whether US troops can have a role in defending Iraq against external aggression, an alarming indicator to Iraq's neighbours especially Iran and Syria who fear that the Americans might use it to interfere with their internal affairs. "I am sure it will have some resistance from the region, but many countries in the region have such agreements," said Zebari. "We need to finalise how many troops will remain and for how long and where and what they will be doing," the official said. He said one of the issues also under discussion but still unresolved is the future of oil revenues, Iraq's main resource to pay for the projects of reconstruction. Under Security Council resolutions related to the 1991 Gulf war, Iraq's oil revenues were put under the supervision of a special UN committee to ensure paying war compensation and paying food rations to Iraqis. Iraqi officials said once the security agreement with the US is signed, Iraq should regain full control over its oil revenues. However, many Iraqis see such an agreement as long-term occupation especially since their government has not expressed any desire so far to introduce the agreement for discussion by the Iraqi political institutions, including parliament. But the Iraqi officials attending the forum in this Red Sea resort said it is made necessary by Iraq's security needs, even with all the successes made in the fight against Al-Qaeda. Abdul-Mahdi said Iraqi and US forces have been able to drive Al-Qaeda from most major cities and towns and are concentrating now on the last stronghold in Mosul. "Yes, Al-Qaeda has been weakened but it is still there. They are still operating in some areas," he said. Barham Saleh, Iraq's deputy prime minister said the security situation in Iraq is very challenging. "There is no way one can declare victory," he said. On 10 May, a joint 11,000 Iraqi-US forces launched a major military offensive in the northern city of Mosul, where Al-Qaeda is believed to maintain its last urban stronghold. The operation, which was initially called Lion's Roar but has morphed into Operation Om Al-Rabiein, a nickname for Mosul, was conceived as an attempt to roll back Al-Qaeda and allied Sunni insurgent groups from the northern province of Nineveh and its capital Mosul, a key transport crossroads between Baghdad, Syria and other points. Iraqi forces detained nearly 1,250 suspects, according to General Riyadh Jalal Tawfiq, the commander of the Nineveh Operational Command. Another blow to the insurgents came on Monday when Major General Ahmed Taha, of the Iraqi Interior Ministry, announced that Iraqi forces captured Abdul-Khaleq Al-Sabaawi, the military operational leader of Al-Qaeda in Mosul. Iraqi forces managed to take control of about 85 per cent of Nineveh province. Although Operation Om Al-Rabiein appears successful, certain on-the-ground developments indicate that it's too early to declare a sweeping victory over Al-Qaeda in Iraq. Many Al-Qaeda operatives have managed to flee the city to the safer surrounding areas in Salaheddin and Diyala provinces, a familiar tactic which has been deployed in previous battles in the western province of Anbar. Arresting Al-Sabawi in Tikrit, 190 kilometres to the south of Mosul, is in itself a clear sign attesting to a grand escape scheme arranged by the leaders of Al-Qaeda in Nineveh to pre-empt the operation. Also, an Iraqi leader, who declined to be identified, told Al-Hayat that many captives during the raids were ex-Iraqi army officers who were simply arrested at home. Yet, the most serious setback of Operation Om Al-Rabiein is its political dimension. Unlike similar experience in Anbar and Baghdad where US forces heavily depended on the Sunni tribal councils, known as Awakening or Sahawat, the Iraqi government has been hesitant to allow Mosul's newly established Awakening Councils to operate inside Mosul due to a Kurdish reservation that such move will jeopardise their grip on the ethnically diverse city. A Sunni tribal chief in Mosul cast doubt on the security gains in the long term. The chief told Al-Basra.net, an Iraqi news website close to the insurgents, that the people of Mosul were not approached before launching the assault. He said "Al-Qaeda fighters will return to the city after the forces are gone," despite the soothing words of the high-profile delegation to Sharm El-Sheikh. Pouring foreign investment to Iraq will also face a major challenge next week when Iraqi leaders finalise the new Iraqi unity government. Its composition already took a blow on Monday when the Iraqi Front Accord, the main Sunni Block in parliament, strongly objected to the proposal to include members of the Awakening Councils in its cabinet. Feeling isolated, the 89,000 Sunni leaders and fighters of the Awakenings could easily reverse the relatively so far successful security gains of the US surge, which in itself remains a fragile process.
