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'A potential winner'
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 03 - 05 - 2012

Dina Ezzat reviews the programmes of presidential candidates Amr Moussa and Abdel-Moneim Abul-Fotouh and their place in public opinion
Amr Moussa, a diplomat who tries very hard to win over all sides, a former foreign minister who enjoyed unprecedented admiration, a former Arab League secretary-general who predicted that the Jasmine Revolution was only the first step towards the inevitable Arab Spring, and a politician who knows how to manoeuvre, rally and win. With a 41 per cent approval rating, Amr Moussa topped the list of 13 candidates in this week's poll conducted by Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies. He enjoys a level of name recognition among the public that few, if any, of his opponents can match.
Throughout the best part of his years in public service Moussa commanded the allegiance of public opinion. He was for many years, and is still for some, seen as the charismatic politician, someone who dared to differ with his boss, president Mubarak, on matters of national security, especially relations with Israel and the US. The distance Moussa managed to publicly maintain from Mubarak and his immediate circle won him sympathy during his decade-long tenure as Egypt's foreign minister and when he was nominated for the Arab League secretary-general's job commentators lamented his departure as a loss for Egyptian diplomacy. Arab commentators then welcomed him as a man whose political positions, especially on the Arab-Israeli struggle, offered a cause for dignity.
But the thankless task of heading the Arab League, to which he was moved, many believe, because he represented a threat to plans for Gamal Mubarak to succeed his father, eroded Moussa's popularity. Inevitably, he became associated with the failures of the collective Arab regime over which he presided.
Moussa's attempts to avoid the escalation of a campaign to discredit potential alternatives to Gamal Mubarak, say his aides, further complicates his position. Statements that they say were made as a matter of courtesy to the Egyptian president are now taken against him by revolutionary forces who see them as evidence of his deep links with the ousted regime, while his criticisms of the regime's foreign and domestic policies are all but ignored.
Despite a careful show of sympathy with the 25 January Revolution, Moussa did not actually join the masses in calling for an end to the rule of Mubarak. He played the diplomat seeking to support the revolution indirectly. Revolutionary forces never appreciated this choice.
Today he faces a tough fight convincing his critics that his years at the helm of the Foreign Ministry were spent in serving the public rather than a regime comprised of Mubarak cronies.
As a presidential candidate, Moussa is again living up to the challenge, explaining himself, arguing his case and reaching out to those who are with him and those against him with no hesitation despite the inevitable frustrations at times.
For his electoral symbol Moussa chose the sun. It brings light and warmth. It goes to people; it does not wait for people to come to it.
It may be an uphill struggle, but it is one Moussa's most implacable opponents believe he might win.
PLATFORM -- 'THE SECOND REPUBLIC': Not just a total overhaul of the system that has practically wrecked the country but a process of rejuvenation for Egypt -- this is what Moussa proposes in his platform.
Moussa launched his platform, which he says will reverse Egypt's political and economic decline, from the heart of Ezbet Al-Haggana, one of Cairo's shantytowns.
He has stressed that his platform's goals can be attained only through dedicated teamwork, orchestrated by a president planning to run for a single term. "I am calling on all citizens to join hands and work together with me to help put Egypt on the right road," said Moussa.
The programme aims at ensuring that by the end of four years Egypt is on track to eradicate poverty and illiteracy among a projected population of 150 million by 2050.
"Egypt deserves to be the strongest and leading nation not just in the Arab world but in the Middle East and the Red Sea and Mediterranean basin," says Moussa.
His priorities include improving education and healthcare and boosting scientific research. His economic policies will attempt to boost activity across sectors.
For the first 100 days Moussa is particularly committed to reintroducing the much compromised security, to re-enforce the law upon all citizens alike and to end the victimisation of the marginalised segments of society and isolation of poorer neighbourhoods, governorates and border cities.
Moussa's platform also promotes equality among Egypt's citizens, placing them on an equal footing before the law, "with no discrimination, none whatsoever". A key note to his campaigning is that life must improve for every citizen, man and woman, Muslim and Copt.
SUPPORT: "We know what Moussa is capable of and we know he could do the job. And it is not just us. As a former foreign minister and secretary-general of the Arab League he is known internationally which could make his job as a president easier," says Nadia, a Copt from Tanta. "Nor is he sectarian; he does not hate us [Copts]."
"Given that the majority in this country is Muslim the president has to be Muslim, this I accept. But I cannot accept an Islamist as president," argued the middle-aged housewife. She added that she wants her grandchildren to grow up in a society where being a Copt is not something that works against you.
Other supporters say they will vote for Moussa because he is a statesman capable of handling the many challenges facing Egypt both at home and abroad.
"The situation facing Egypt is far too complicated to have a pair of new hands in the top seat," says Hadi, a dermatologist in his late 20s. "This is an emergency situation that requires experience. There is no room for trial and error when you have a declining economy, retreating levels of security, deteriorating public services and the erosion of social cohesion, not just between Muslims and Copts but between the poor and the rich."
Moussa's opponents argue that experience does not count for everything, and certainly not when it has gained in the corrupting milieu of the Mubarak regime. What Egypt needs now, they say, is not someone who is going to tweak the system but who will dispense with existing formulas and start afresh.
"Moussa was never a part of the revolution and should not be allowed to take advantage of it now. Only those who were there when people risked their lives should be allowed to run for president," says Nabil, a translator in his late 40s. "I admit I was dismayed when Mubarak removed him from the Foreign Ministry to clear the way for Gamal but that was over 10 years ago. It was before the revolution."
Nabil, who says he was in Tahrir Square for every one of the 18 days of the revolution, now sees the world through the strict lens of those who were in Tahrir and those who were not.
The fact that Moussa served for 10 years under Mubarak as foreign minister is something many of Moussa's opponents say militates against his election.
"I cannot reconcile myself with anyone from the old regime. It makes no difference whether or not he was removed by Mubarak to pave the way for his son. In the end Moussa served as part of the regime that the revolution came to remove," says Mona, an architect in her early 50s. Although she was not part of the revolution Mona believes it would be "unfair" for the next president to come from the old regime.
"I know people say he has experience and that he disagreed with Mubarak but I think that it is time for a fresh start. Moussa is not a fresh start."
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Racing favourite
Abdel-Moneim Abul-Fotouh started off a few months ago with an approval rating in several polls of no more than four per cent. Today, he has some 27 per cent.
Presidential candidate Abdel-Moneim Abul-Fotouh is a medical doctor who graduated with honours, but who was denied an academic post owing to his political views. He was also a leading figure in the Muslim Brotherhood, the oldest Islamist organisation in the Arab world, until he was expelled from the group over his decision to run for president.
Abul-Fotouh is the presidential candidate of Islamist background who appeals most to intellectuals and ordinary people from all walks of life and all political backgrounds. According to the Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies this week, Abul-Fotouh was the second-most popular of all 13 presidential candidates, his approval ratings being consistently in the high 20s in opinion polls.
Now aged 60, Abul-Fotouh made his career in hospital administration, a profession that went hand-in-hand with what is closest to the heart of this white-haired and serious-looking man: humanitarian work and political activism.
Abul-Fotouh was born into a middle-class Cairo family on 15 October 1951. While still a university student, he developed a taste for what was then an increasingly influential political Islamic trend, and he joined the Al-Gamaa Al-Islamiya, an Islamist group that did not necessarily eschew violence in promoting its views.
From the Al-Gamaa Al-Islamiya Abul-Fotouh later moved to the Muslim Brotherhood, where he stayed for many years helping to improve the group's organisation through its Guidance Bureau, which is responsible for the Brotherhood's policy orientation. At the same time as he was working to strengthen the Brotherhood, Abul-Fotouh was engaging in humanitarian-relief work across the Muslim world. He also worked in Egypt's unions, perhaps a natural development for a man who had been very much involved in student unions during their heyday in Egyptian universities in the 1970s.
As secretary-general of the Arab Doctors Union and head of several Muslim relief agencies, Abul-Fotouh pursued such humanitarian and union work. As a prominent Islamist, he also made a name for himself as a leading opponent of the ruling regime, being associated with criticisms of the late president Anwar El-Sadat when Abul-Fotouh was still a student.
Despite several years spent in prison under the rule of ousted president Hosni Mubarak, Abul-Fotouh remained determined to oppose the regime. From the first day of last year's 25 January Revolution, Abul-Fotouh, unlike other leading figures of the Muslim Brotherhood and most of the current presidential candidates, joined the crowds calling for an end to the Mubarak regime.
Now himself a candidate in the presidential elections, Abul-Fotouh has managed to position himself as the favourite choice of many intellectuals, including those from liberal circles, as well as of many members of the traditional middle class and the youth of the Muslim Brotherhood itself, all without compromising his Islamist views. Such popularity has caused almost unprecedented tensions within the otherwise tightly controlled Brotherhood.
Abul-Fotouh has chosen a horse as his electoral symbol, a choice which, his supporters say, is an indication of their candidate's ability to "gallop ahead" in the presidential race. A PLATFORM -- 'STRONG EGYPT': In his electoral platform, Abul-Fotouh has consistently argued for policies that, he says, will make Egypt into a strong country. "I pledge to make Egypt one of the 20 strongest economies in the world within 10 years," he says, one of the key statements made by Abul-Fotouh at a meeting in Al-Azhar Park in Cairo to the delight of his supporters.
Abul-Fotouh's proposals include a set of large-scale projects that should help give a push to the economy, industry and agriculture. However, boosting the economy is only one element of the comprehensive plans Abul-Fotouh has put forward.
Other elements in his programme include putting an end to the unmistakable decline in Egypt's security, education and health services. If elected president, he has promised to upgrade budget allocations for education to 25 per cent and health to 15 per cent, compared to their less than seven per cent and less than three per cent today.
Combating poverty and illiteracy are also high priorities for Abul-Fotouh. "I pledge to end the illiteracy of all those under the age of 40 within one presidential term," he says. If elected, his vice president will be under the age of 45, presumably in a bid to attract younger voters, and 50 per cent of top jobs would go to members of the younger generation to help rejuvenate the system.
Putting the police in their place and taking the military out of politics are also key elements in Abul-Fotouh's programme. In line with his Islamist principles, he has also underlined his commitment to refer all new laws to the Islamic Sharia, in order to ensure that they conform to it.
SUPPORT: Both those who support and those who oppose Abul-Fotouh know that he is a candidate who should be taken seriously. "This man is a good man. I don't care if he comes from the Muslim Brotherhood. What I care about is what he has to offer for the future," said Darine, a postgraduate student at Ain Shams University in Cairo.
Darine, who says that she took part in the 25 January Revolution from the first day onwards, would rather see Mohamed El-Baradei, former director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) who returned to Egypt in 2010 with a clear call for political change, as president.
However, after El-Baradei's decision to quit the presidential race, Darine made up her mind to support Abul-Fotouh instead. "He is not less than El-Baradei anyway," she comments. "In some ways, he is better."
For this 23-year-old woman, Abul-Fotouh's "long years of opposition to Mubarak" put him in a higher place than El-Baradei. "He was always a critic of the former regime, when this kind of criticism came at a high price. He was jailed and subjected to many forms of persecution, but he never gave up. It is quite impressive," Darine said.
His long history of political activism is only one reason that Abul-Fotouh supporters mention when they talk about him. Other reasons offered for their support include his "ability to work with people from different political backgrounds" and his "moderate Islamist views".
"I was hesitant about whom to vote for, because I honestly did not want to vote for an Islamist. However, I must say that when I heard Abul-Fotouh speaking I thought he was a very reasonable man," said Lamia, a banker in her late 30s.
For Lamia, it is certainly comforting that Abul-Fotouh is not too engrossed in "matters related to appearance, such as the Islamic head veil" that some Muslim clerics describe as being mandatory for Muslim women.
"I don't want a president who will make women wear the veil. I want a president who worries more about acute problems, such as security, poverty, traffic, education and so on," she said.
However, to those who oppose or fear Abul-Fotouh, the candidate's moderate Islamist views are not what they seem. "He is pretending to be moderate, but actually he was responsible for making the Muslim Brotherhood what it is today. He has the views and values of this radical Islamist organisation, and he has never said that he has changed his mind about it," said Seif, an interior designer in his early 40s.
Seif is one of those who perceive Abul-Fotouh as being the "hidden candidate of the Muslim Brotherhood" in the presidential elections, and he goes so far as to suggest that the Brotherhood's nomination of its vice supreme guide Khairat El-Shater for president and the subsequent nomination of the head of the Freedom and Justice Party, the political arm of the Brotherhood, Mohamed Mursi, was only "an act to help deceive".
Seif argues that the ascent of an Islamist to power in Egypt would be a recipe for disaster. "Having an Islamist as president, in addition to an Islamist parliament and future Islamist government, would mean that one political line controlled the country. This is called political monopoly," he said.
For Hoda, a housewife, it does not matter very much what Abul-Fotouh's past with the Brotherhood means. For her, what matters is that he is an Islamist "and that means that if he were elected our society would be changed forever."
"He might be a good man in himself who has some good ideas, but the fact of the matter is that he is an Islamist," and therefore he would change the country in what for her are unwanted ways. Speaking after many of the Salafi factions announced their support for Abul-Fotouh, Hoda said that a man who came into office thanks to the votes of the Salafis and the Muslim Brotherhood would make sure that he favours them in order to get re-elected.
The only way in which he could do this would be to undermine some of the civil elements of Egyptian state and society and "forcibly Islamise" them, she said.


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