As the Syrian regime moves towards a military solution to ongoing pro-democracy protests, many see the domestic situation evolving into an international problem, writes Bassel Oudat in Damascus The level of violence in Syria has reached record intensity over the past week as military and security forces launched an unprecedented violent crackdown to regain control over many areas out of their control. The average daily figure of those killed among protesters and those opposed to the Damascus regime at the hands of security forces has reached nearly 100 every day, while the opposition asserts that security agencies have committed massacres in several regions in Syria by killing hundreds, including children, women and the elderly. The Syrian army used heavy artillery to bomb cities and towns in rural Damascus just outside the capital, as well as towns and cities in Homs, Hama, Edleb (north central Syria), Deraa (the south) and Deir Al-Zur (north). Several areas suffered from power outages, communication blackouts and no fuel for days. Meanwhile, dozens of unarmed civilians were killed and homes and buildings were levelled. Some locals pleaded for a ceasefire in order to remove the bodies of their relatives from the streets, while activists demanded that some towns such as Al-Rastan in Homs, Rankus in rural Damascus and Hama should be declared disaster zones. The opposition contends that the "security solution" pursued by the regime against protesters over the past 10 months has evolved into a "military solution" using a variety of medium to heavy weapons. The peak in violence over the past week did not deter Syrians from continuing their massive protests across the country. Even the city of Aleppo (north), which is theoretically viewed as calm and loyal to the regime, witnessed mass demonstrations, with civilians killed for the first time since the start of protests in March 2011. The escalation of violence and use of artillery in targeting some regions triggered more army defections, expanding the base of what is known as the Free Syrian Army (FSA), which has taken it upon itself to defend civilians. Fierce battles between the FSA and the regime's security and military forces took place, killing many on both sides during the week, especially in rural Damascus, Hama, Deraa and Edleb. The Syrian authorities blame terrorist groups and foreign-backed militias for the violence. The escalation of the crackdown came two days after the Arab League announced a new initiative calling for a peaceful and gradual transition of power in Syria. Most notably, it calls on President Bashar Al-Assad to relinquish powers to his vice president, and the formation of a national government charged with writing a new constitution. It also calls for parliamentary and presidential elections attended by international monitors, according to a set timeline. The Arab League announcement came at the same time that Arab monitors suspended their mission in Syria after a spike in violence and deaths. At the same time, the Arab League secretary general asked for assistance from the UN Security Council. The Syrian opposition across the board welcomed the political solution in the new Arab initiative, but doubted its feasibility, especially since the Syrian regime immediately rejected it and described it as "an Arab conspiracy". Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Al-Muallim declared "no more Arab solutions" after today to resolve the Syrian crisis. Al-Muallim claimed that the security/military solution is "a demand by the people," emphasising that it is "the duty of the government" to quickly implement this solution. This was taken as a declaration of war against protesters in Syria. "Talk of a political resolution with the Syrian regime is unrealistic, whether it comes from the Arab League or elsewhere," asserted Rodeif Mustafa, a lawyer and member of the opposition National Syrian Council (NSC), speaking to Al-Ahram Weekly. "The regime does not possess any political perspective to resolve the problems. In fact, it has burned all its political bridges because it relied only on violence and suppression since the beginning of the revolution, and continues to kill, torture and commit massacres." Mustafa, who heads the Kurdish Committee for Human Rights, believes that during the next phase "we will be facing a first-class despotic, totalitarian, security-centred bloodthirsty regime that is highly centralised and closely connected to the person of the president and his absolute powers. It has a long history of killing, torture and committing massacres, so we expect the regime to do anything. It is teetering because the noose is tightening around its neck inside and outside Syria." Behind the scenes at the UN Security Council there has been heated debate between Russia on the one side and Europe, the US and Arab states on the other, as the two camps negotiate two draft resolutions on the Syrian crisis, one proposed by Russia and the other a joint European-Arab effort. The Western-Arab resolution is similar to the Arab initiative, while Russia rejects any resolution that calls on the Syrian president to leave power or does not oppose military intervention in Syria. These Security Council talks include a delegation from the Syrian opposition (the NSC) that has called on the Security Council to provide international protection for Syrian civilians. The talks also include the Arab League's secretary-general and Sheikh Hamad Bin Jassem, Qatar's prime minister. Those championing the European-Arab initiative hope to convince Russia to abandon its "unjustified" bias for two reasons. First, because the Arab League is the one that called on the Security Council to adopt the Arab initiative, and Moscow could not possibly be more Arab than the Arabs. Second, because the crackdown in Syria "has become brutal", according to the French Foreign Ministry. It is also noteworthy, that consultations about Syria took place between the secretary general of the Gulf Cooperation Council and NATO's general secretary, and similar talks took place with the EU's foreign policy chief. Irrespective of the outcome, whether a resolution on Syria is issued or not, the Syrian problem has entered a new phase and from here it will be handled by the world community. It will be subject to wheeling and dealing, and there will be a race against time between escalating military operations on the ground and progress in political consultations in the Security Council. Major Maher Al-Noemi, spokesman for the FSA, described "unprecedented ruthless attacks" on rural Damascus that targeted unarmed civilians, homes and buildings. Al-Noemi expected that the regime will continue the crackdown, but noted that defections from the army are on the rise and that the FSA is only eight kilometres outside the capital Damascus. Indeed, a few days ago, the road to Damascus International Airport that connects the capital with the sole civilian airport was shut down because of battles between army defectors and the regular army. Speaking about the role of the FSA, Hazem Nahar, a member of the opposition, told the Weekly that, "Any vision that does not include the FSA is myopic. This army has become a reality, whether some like it or not. No doubt, giving political cover to this army is a political necessity and a moral obligation in order to prevent it from disintegrating into armed militia groups. We must seek appropriate solutions to lessen the negative consequences of divisions in military ranks along sectarian lines, especially since the Syrian regime has formed loyalist groups from one specific sect." Nahar, the editor-in-chief of the political magazine Al-Mashkah, emphasised the need for the revolution in Syria to remain peaceful. "Keeping it peaceful remains the most successful and productive path to take," he said. "This is not a romantic notion, but a political choice based on detailed future considerations to avoid Syria sliding into a phase of unregulated arms and instability after the fall of the regime." Fayez Sara, an opposition figure who was a political prisoner for many years and today is active in the committees to revive civil society, is concerned that the regime will continue its war operations, especially that there are no longer eyewitnesses or monitors inside Syria to document violations and massacres. "I believe communications between the Arab League and the Syrian regime have broken down," he said. "The Arab monitors no longer have a role and for them to continue their mission is a farce." Sara added: "Protests will continue with intensity in all Syrian cities, towns and villages, but this time they will be unmonitored which is a loss for the people's movement in Syria, because there are no longer eyewitnesses of the violations by the regime, irrespective of the value of their testimony whether it is entirely or partially honest." Some observers believe that events in Syria are unravelling too quickly for the Arab League and the world community to keep up, arguing that the Syrian issue is complicated by the fact that the regime holds several tools of disruption in Lebanon, Iraq, Israel, and even Turkey. This is causing disorientation among Arabs and in world community, out of fear that the Syrian regime would transform its battle against its people into mayhem and war in the entire region. Nahar presents an alternative scenario, if the Security Council fails to reach agreement to end the bloodshed in Syria. "It is likely that the Security Council will be unable to reach agreement on a resolution on Syria, at least under current political circumstances," he explained. "The alternative is an international conference to discuss the Syrian crisis where all parties will participate: Europe, the US, Russia, China, Turkey, Arab states, even Iran. Its mission will be to draw up a detailed roadmap that is binding on all parties to transform Syria into a democratic civil state with minimal losses, and maintaining the country's unity, stability and security." He continued: "Since the Syrian crisis has become an international problem, whether we like it or not, such a conference would give the parties an opportunity to agree on possible solutions, since there are influential and effective parties that have varying and contradictory interests. Perhaps such a conference would be an opportunity for these states to agree on these interests, as long as Syria's interests -- namely the interests of the country's national unity and people -- remain central." Amidst political upheavals and a cold war among parties with interests in Syria, security and military forces continue the violent crackdown, killing more civilians while economic conditions continue to deteriorate. The numbers of army defectors who take with them their weapons and equipment continues to rise, and fears continue that the revolution that had peaceful beginnings would evolve into all-out war between the regime and its loyalists on one side, and the rest of the population on the other. There is growing conviction among observers that the regime will not be able to stop the protests through violent means, but at the same time it will not fall easily. Meanwhile, protesters and the opposition are increasingly convinced of the need to overthrow the regime because they believe it has launched an open war against its own people.
