All signs are that Israel will attack Gaza again; only the timing is yet to be decided, writes Saleh Al-Naami The waiting room at the orthopaedics clinic at Al-Salah Medical Centre in Al-Maghazi Refugee Camp in central Gaza was agog with conversation at the beginning of the week as waiting patients wiled away the time debating whether Israel would launch another war against the Gaza Strip or not. Some were confident that it would certainly do so; some couldn't hide their concern; while others countered that Tel Aviv could not possibly launch a more aggressive war than the one at the end of 2008, so there is no need to worry. One of the women who lives in Abul-Ageen district, southeast of the town of Deir Al-Balah, said that she left her home -- which is located less than 500 metres from the border separating the Gaza Strip and Israel -- when the last war began. She went to live in a rented apartment in the town of Deir Al-Balah and now is worried that her family would need to do the same thing again in the next war. The difference this time, she explained, is that they cannot afford the rent and that there are barely any apartments available because of high demand. "I hold my breath all night until morning comes," said the woman, who looked in her mid-40s. "I am scared for my husband and children; our house would be one of the first to be hit if war breaks out." A man sitting behind her didn't like the panic in her voice. He interrupted: "What more can they do than what happened in the last war? Life and death are in the hands of God." Talk of war seems a hot topic for Gazans everywhere. People debate and analyse Israel's motives to launch a war. General Tal Russo, the head of the Southern Command in the Israeli army, indicated that Israel would escalate operations against Hamas and its government in response to clashes between Palestinian resistance groups and Israeli special units on both sides of the border between Gaza and Israel. One Israeli soldier was killed and five others injured in recent skirmishes. Ron Ben-Yishai, senior political commentator for Yediot Aharonot newspaper, argues that another war by Israel against Gaza is only a matter of time. Ben-Yishai revealed that all the military leaders, cabinet ministers, Knesset members and the presidents of settlement councils in the vicinity of Gaza assert that the decision to go to war has been taken and it's only a matter of timing. He predicted that Israel would launch another war within the next few months to one year at most, when conditions are more conducive for such a war. Israel's leaders usually cite two reasons to go to war against Gaza. First, that missile attacks from Gaza into Israel continue; second, weapons and other assault equipment continue to be smuggled into Gaza. Israeli officials claim the attacks are given a green light by Hamas and its government, although the group itself does not participate in them. Decision-makers in Tel Aviv believe this is a sign that Israel's deterrence is eroding in the eyes of Hamas since the last war. But do these two reasons truly warrant a war, or does Israel have other hidden reasons? Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak described 2010 as one of the calmest, whereby missile attacks largely dropped, as did the amount of damage in Israel as a result of resistance operations. It is certain that Israel has other reasons to wage war, most prominently mixing up issues since negotiations have ground to a halt. It also wants to impose a new political agenda in the region so that the outcome of the next war would turn over a new leaf, allowing Israel to avoid international demands for it to change its negotiating posture and show more flexibility. At the same time, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is burdened by a series of failures since he came to office. His popularity and that of the ruling Likud Party is dropping because of his failure to confront the crises plaguing Israel. These include the failure to put out the Mount Carmel forest fires that greatly undermined the confidence of Jewish settlers in the incumbent government, and also the belief by the Israeli public and elite that Netanyahu is the weakest prime minister in Israeli's history: he is paralysed in handling Israel's calamities and too cowardly to question his ministers who perform poorly on the job. Accordingly, Netanyahu is likely to wage war to improve his image and that of his government. There are three fronts where Israel can launch a war: Iran, Lebanon and Gaza. Gaza is obviously the softest target for Israel to attack and score points, in comparison. At the same time, the probability that Israel will go to war against Iran has significantly diminished after assurances by outgoing Mossad Chief Meir Dagan that his secret war against Iran's nuclear programme has incapacitated Tehran from developing nuclear military capabilities before at least 2015. Also, there is a huge difference in the military capabilities of Hamas and those of Hizbullah. Under current conditions, Israel has no plausible reason to justify a war against Hizbullah since the group has maintained a quiet and calm front in South Lebanon. However, Israel can use sporadic missile attacks from Gaza as a pretext for launching a war against the Strip. But what scale of war would Israel launch anew against Gaza? This would depend on Israel's parameters in the war, which are dictated by two factors. First, that the next war should not oust Hamas from power because the current structure in Gaza greatly benefits Israel. This revelation was disclosed in WikiLeaks reports, which quoted the commander of Israeli Military Intelligence Amos Yadlin at the beginning of 2007 as saying that he would be pleased to see Hamas take power in Gaza. In this way, Israel would know whom to put pressure on and extract a price from by imposing a siege and launching military operations, without much resistance from the international community because Hamas is on the terrorist lists in Europe and the US. That would not have been the case if the government in Gaza belonged to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. Israel is also uninterested in managing the daily lives of more than 1.5 million Palestinians, knows that the world community would become less amiable with it as a result, and is certain that a strike against Palestinians -- regardless of its magnitude -- will end the resistance. The second factor dictating the parameters of war is Israel wanting to avoid another episode that would further undermine its standing in the world. Hence, it is very likely that the next war would take the form of an aggressive military campaign comprised of assassinating large numbers of Hamas leaders -- and probably the leaders of other Palestinian groups. It would also target what Israel considers the infrastructure of resistance, such as training and manufacturing sites. Israel is also likely to penetrate deep into specific areas to draw the fire of the Palestinians, and kill a large number of Palestinian resistance fighters. If all signs indicate that this is what Israel will do, Hamas then must not allow Israel to control the situation. The group should transform the next war, despite its intensity and aggression, into an opportunity for the Palestinian people, instead of remaining in power and licking its wounds. If Israel wants Hamas to rule over a destroyed and debilitated Gaza in name, without any cadres to carry out vital functions, Hamas should pre-empt this. According to some, the group should end the war by stepping down from power after Israel reoccupies parts of Gaza, which would give Hamas a pretext to do so. Abdicating power in Gaza would achieve three significant goals for the Palestinian people and Hamas. First, an end to the financial responsibility that comes with government, since the group would no longer be responsible for tens of thousands of civil servants. Second, the group would relinquish the burden of providing minimum living standards for Gazans -- of whom 80 per cent live below the poverty line. Finally, the move would no doubt effect a significant change in the Palestinian national cause by focussing world attention on Israel's crimes, instead of on internal divisions.
