By Dina Ezzat As the deadlock in Middle East peace-making persists and inter-Arab differences re-surface, Egypt is faced with the difficult task of preventing these factors from eroding its role as a regional power broker. "If Egypt does not make a significant contribution to the peace process and if it fails to deal with inter-Arab divisions, then it is destined for marginalisation in the region," said one official. In this situation, Cairo will lose much of its political leverage, a key factor in achieving a balance in its relations with non-regional powers, such as the United States. Egyptian diplomacy will have to continue to strive to confront Israel's anti-peace policies as well as contain inter-Arab divisions that encourage Israeli intransigence. Egypt has relentlessly attempted to revive the Arab consensus that was reached at the June 1996 summit, linking Arab-Israeli cooperation to progress in peace-making. "We are not dealing with an easy situation," an official said. "There are so many mutual misunderstandings and misgivings." These doubts have so far aborted all attempts to get Arab leaders directly concerned with the peace process to meet in a limited summit and take a decision on what should be done to confront Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's expansionist policy. "Syria wants a significant scaling-down of Arab-Israeli economic cooperation, but Jordan feels that this will hurt its own interests," a source said. In fact, the source added, there are serious concerns that Jordan may soon join Israel and Turkey in some sort of military alliance. But Cairo is not giving up yet. Over the past few weeks, diplomatic sources said, Egypt has stepped up efforts to contain inter-Arab divisions, particularly those between the Syrians, Jordanians and Palestinians. Saudi Arabia co-sponsored the Egyptian effort. Sources told Al-Ahram Weekly that the foreign ministers of Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Syria have held at least two secret meetings to look at the possibility of organising a limited summit of the Arab states bordering Israel plus Saudi Arabia. Another possibility that was discussed was a tripartite Egyptian-Syrian-Saudi summit. In the meantime, Egypt has been opposing all Israeli attempts to launch a new peace process that ignores the existing Palestinian-Israeli agreements and opens the way for Israel to impose its position in any future settlement. This week, Cairo asserted in no uncertain terms that Netanyahu's call for a second Madrid conference is out of the question. "The [peace conference that was held in] Madrid was the conference that laid down the basis for the peace process with all its tracks and aspects. These terms should be respected and honoured," said Foreign Minister Amr Moussa. "And there will be no Madrid II." According to Egyptian sources, the current terms of reference do not do real justice to the Arabs because they were reached in the wake of the major Arab split that resulted from Iraq's invasion of Kuwait. If these terms are undermined further, then Arab rights would be in danger of liquidation, a source said. Moreover, Cairo is aware that if the international community buys Netanyahu's proposal for a Madrid II, Israel would act to marginalise, if not completely eradicate, the Egyptian involvement in the peace process. The Egyptian position is that the only conference under consideration is the "Save the Peace" summit proposed by Presidents Hosni Mubarak and Jacques Chirac of France. Egyptian-French consultations have been stepped up to consider the possibility of organising this summit, to be attended by countries concerned with the peace process, excluding Israel, the Palestinian Authority, Syria and Lebanon. Last week, Foreign Minister Moussa discussed the possibility of the summit with Miguel Moratinos, the European envoy to the Middle East. Moratinos said that he would lobby support for the idea from members of the EU. And, early next week, a French envoy is expected in Cairo to discuss possible arrangements for the summit. According to one source, the chances of organising this conference are increasing now that Israel seems determined to reject the US initiative for a 13 per cent withdrawal from the West Bank. Said Moussa: "This process [of persuading Israel] cannot go on forever. We do not believe that prolonging the stalemate or maintaining silence on the situation is of any use." Egyptian and European officials agree that if no agreement on a West Bank withdrawal is reached by the end of July, when the Israeli Knesset starts its summer recess, the Egyptian-French initiative will have to move ahead more forcefully. On the other hand, Egyptian efforts to lobby the Israeli opposition have not yielded any significant results. Actually, Egyptian officials are aware that when push comes to shove, the Labour and Likud parties are likely to adopt similar policies on the broad lines of a final settlement. During a visit to Cairo last month, Labour leader Ehud Barak agreed with the Likud policy of providing Israeli settlers with weapons, describing it as "technical security arrangements". Barak also refused to accept the existence of a full-fledged Palestinian state, at any stage, arguing that a Palestinian state with an army would be a violation of the "red line" of Israeli security. In fact, Egyptian officials say that Netanyahu's policies are beginning to gather enough local support to carry him through this term and secure him a decent chance of winning a second term in the year 2000. There seems to be a consensus among officials and experts that building new alliances and reshaping some of the old ones is becoming absolutely essential for Egypt's regional interests. This means greater warmth towards Iran, more accommodation of Turkey, straight talk with Jordan and closer rapport with both Syria and Saudi Arabia. On top of that, experts say, Egypt has to demonstrate greater independence from US policy, particularly when it comes to inter-regional relations. They argue that, for example, there is no need for Egypt to continue to be apprehensive of Iran simply because the US objects to close Egyptian-Iranian relations "that could well disturb Israel's plan for regional hegemony." "It is understandable that Egypt should continue to avoid angering the US and Netanyahu's powerful friends in Congress," said political analyst Mustafa Kamel El-Sayed. But when it comes to Egypt's relations with other Middle Eastern countries, such as Iran, Cairo should not show much concern for the US position, he added. In less than a week, Egypt and the US will be launching the first round of their strategic dialogue in Washington. On the agenda for the talks between Moussa and US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright are a host of political issues, including relations with Iran and Israel, as well as regional peace-making. The purpose of the dialogue that was proposed by Egypt is to "minimise the differences on issues of obvious importance to both sides, and to exchange, with objectivity, views on certain problems," an official said. Egyptian officials insist that they will not use the dialogue to ask for a green light from Washington for certain aspects of their regional policy. "When it comes to our strategic and regional interests, we don't hesitate to act," said one official. But the fact remains that the dialogue comes at a time when Cairo is facing serious political challenges and is also preparing to deal with a reduction in US economic aid.
