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Betting on the willing nations
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 20 - 02 - 2003

The United States and Britain are continuing to push for war against Iraq -- in spite of protests around the world and a major setback in the Bush administration's efforts to deploy troops in Turkey. Khaled Dawoud reports from Washington
US President George W Bush said on Tuesday he would continue pressing members of the United Nations Security Council to pass a second resolution declaring that Iraq has failed to comply with its obligation to disarm, and, thus, should face "serious consequences".
US officials said they originally wanted to table the draft resolution, prepared jointly with Britain, on Tuesday. However, in the face of strong international opposition -- clearly reflected in the "historic" Security Council meeting held on Friday 14 February, in which France won unprecedented applause for its appeal to give peace a chance -- US officials said they could wait until this Friday or early next week.
Last Friday's session was a major embarrassment for the United States, especially when it became clear that it only had a few supporters on the Security Council, namely, Britain, Spain and Bulgaria. France, Russia and China, who hold veto power at the Security Council, have all said they saw no reason for force to be used now against Iraq, and that inspectors should be given more time to continue their work.
If the United States and Britain fail to secure the approval of at least nine members of the Security Council, but France, Russia and China do not use their veto power, American officials said they would stick to the original plan of "leading a coalition of willing nations" to launch a war against Iraq. Those officials repeatedly cite the example of Kosovo, when the United States failed to obtain backing from the Security Council to attack former Yugoslavia more than two years ago, but went ahead with a handful of other allies to carry out the mission.
In statements on Tuesday, Bush told reporters a second Security Council resolution was not necessary, because the original resolution, 1441, passed by the international body in early November already warned Iraq it would face "serious consequences" if it did not comply with demands. However, America's closest ally, Britain, insists on obtaining a second resolution to counter strong opposition at home and on the international level, saying that this would send the Iraqi leader a clear message that the entire world wants his country to disarm.
Recent opinion polls show that 70 to 80 per cent of people in virtually all European countries would oppose a war against Iraq without UN backing. Such opposition would decrease to about 50-60 per cent if UN approval was granted. The same applies in the United States, say recent opinion polls. Nearly 60 per cent of those surveyed said they would oppose a war against Iraq without UN backing, and slightly more than 50 per cent said they would support a war in the event there was consent by major countries.
"As I said, a second resolution would be useful," Bush said. He added, "We don't need a second resolution because it's clear that this guy [Iraqi President Saddam Hussein] could care less about the first resolution. He is in total defiance of 1441. But we want to work with our friends and allies to see if we can get a second resolution, as we are doing right now."
Bush also dismissed a reported proposal by several members of the Security Council that a second UN resolution should deliver a new ultimatum or "another last chance" to the Iraqi leader to fully disarm. Shrugging his shoulders, Bush said, "another, another, another last chance. He [Saddam] knows he needs to completely, totally disarm. He is a fellow who likes to buy time, deception, delay. He believes time is on his side. He was quoted in an Egyptian newspaper [the independent Al-Osbou' three months ago], saying all he has got to do is stall and defy the world, and the coalition will fall apart. I'm determined to keep the peace; I'm determined to hold this man to account."
Bush's statements came as he faced another major setback in reported negotiations with Turkey over allowing US troops to be based there to launch an attack through northern Iraq. The United States has reportedly offered Turkey a $26-billion package -- $6 billion in grants and $20 billion in loans. But Turkey has reportedly requested double that sum. The New York Times on Tuesday quoted a senior Bush administration official as saying that the offer Bush made to Turkish officials he met on 14 February was "final". President Bush reportedly made clear during those meetings that he would go no higher than $26 billion, and that the time-frame for the Turks to make the decision was brief. "Turkey now has a big decision to make," the American official quoted by The New York Times said. If Turkey fails to approve the deployments, he added, "then we'll move on; the forces will go someplace else".
But where else remains a big question that American officials did not answer. Besides Kuwait, there is no other country neighbouring Iraq that could take the huge number of US troops that Pentagon planners think they need in order to launch an attack against Iraq. Basing troops in Turkey would allow the American army to squeeze Iraqi forces from both the south -- Kuwait -- and the north.
In his statements on Tuesday, Bush said of the Turks that "they had no better friend than the American government." He added, "we are working closely with the Turks. We've got respect for the Turkish government, and hopefully we can come up with an agreement that is satisfactory to both parties. We are still working on it."
Reacting for the first time to massive anti-war protests at home and abroad on Saturday and Sunday, Bush reiterated his view that the Iraqi president is a "threat to the world". He said, "democracy is a good thing. People are allowed to express their opinion. I welcome people's right to say what they believe." He added, "some in the world do not view Saddam as a risk to peace. I respectfully disagree. Saddam Hussein gassed his own people; Saddam Hussein has got weapons of mass destruction; Saddam Hussein has defied the UN; Saddam Hussein is a threat to America, and we will deal with him. War is my last choice, but the risk of doing nothing is an even worse option."
The strong statements made by Bush on Tuesday came as the US military continued amassing its troops in Kuwait and around the Gulf region. Pentagon officials said that nearly 100,000 troops were already based in Kuwait, and there were 50,000 others around the Gulf region. According to US military analysts, that number of troops would be sufficient to start the first stage of the attack against Iraq.
The upcoming important deadline, according to US officials, would be 1 March after the heads of the UN inspection teams, Hans Blix and Mohamed El- Baradie, deliver another update to the Security Council on their work in Iraq.
In statements on Sunday, US National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice ruled out accepting a proposal made by French Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin to hold a Security Council meeting on a ministerial level on 14 March to review another update from Blix and El-Baradie. She said, "this was a date suggested by France, and it does not have the backing of the rest of Security Council members." This, say some analysts, means the United States continues to be committed to its original plan to start the war against Iraq some time in late February or early March.


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