On the eve of anticipated national elections in Iraq, Dina Ezzat speaks to Iraqi refugees in Egypt about their fears and hopes "I am not going to go to the elections. I have no intention to vote," said Abu Hussein, a middle- aged Sunni Iraqi refugee in Egypt. "During the times of Saddam Hussein, I declined to go to the referendum because I was not convinced that Saddam was good for the people," Abu Hussein recalled. That was a hazardous decision to take, because during those years, "Not saying yes could be taken as a no." Today, Abu Hussein feels he has nothing to risk by absenting himself from the ballot: "Nothing to lose by not going and nothing to gain, really." According to Abu Hussein, "none, absolutely none of the political parties on the scene in Iraq today could do anything to serve Iraq. They are not patriotic Iraqis -- those who were brought by the American occupation. They are simply interest groups. They care nothing but for making political and material gains." Abu Hussein feels that whoever comes to power in Iraq will not be able to make things better for Iraqis, either because they are not really interested in doing so or because improving the situation is not "in the interest of the Americans who could ultimately use the lack of security and stability in the country as a pretext to extend their stay in Iraq." Speaking at his chicken grill restaurant at the heart of 6 October governorate, a hub for Iraqi refugees, Abu Hussein came to tears as he contemplated the fate of Iraq. "A great nation and a great civilisation of a great people was forced to suffer wars and sanctions due to the political whims of Saddam and his miscalculations and was then forced to fall into total failure because of the agenda of those political opportunists that expect us to vote for them," he said. The retired army officer who fled his once upscale Baghdad home in 2005 after having paid almost all his savings to free his eldest son from a militant group that had kidnapped him, Abu Hussein has today little hope that he will "ever see Iraq again". "Oh how I miss Baghdad; I miss everything about Baghdad, but Baghdad is lost; all of Iraq is lost, I think forever," he said. Abu Hussein is far from alone in the Iraqi community in Egypt that is estimated roughly at 200,000. Other Iraqis who spoke to Al-Ahram Weekly shared Abu Hussein's deep scepticism that the Iraqi elections, which will be held on 7 March in Iraq and in 16 states overseas on 5-7 March, could end the current turmoil in the country. Many -- whether Sunni, Shia or Christian -- said they had little if any confidence in the intentions of the close to 6,000 political candidates that are running on 255 electoral lists. Some suggested that the political figures running for election are there to serve either the agenda of the American occupation or that of neighbouring and influential Iran. "Iran is using its influence in Iraq to bargain with the US over [Tehran's] nuclear programme. The Iranian regime does not care what will become of Iraq. It does not care if Iraq is turned into a total failed state forever. They just care for their political agenda," said Firas, a Shia refugee from Basra who is working at a bakery in Nasr City that is owned by an Egyptian and an Iraqi. "Some people think that all Shias support the presence of Iran in Iraq, but this is not true. We want the strong and self-determining Iraq that is independent of all other nations, be it the US or Iran," he said as he baked Iraqi bread. Like Abu Hussein, Firas took issue with the rule of Saddam. However, like other Iraqi refugees in Egypt who lived the years of sanctions and the years of occupation, Abu Hussein and Firas are now convinced that the dictatorship of Saddam, no matter how brutal, was less damaging to Iraq than the rule of the current political players. "And what have those so-called politicians -- they had better call themselves sheer opportunists -- done for Iraq during the past seven years [since the 2003 American invasion] so that we elect them? What do we have in Iraq today? Do we have services? The answer is no. Do we have security? The answer is of course not," said Abu Wael, a Christian Iraqi who has taken refuge in Cairo since 2004. According to Abu Wael, the years of Saddam were not particularly bad for Christians. "They were just bad in general, and mainly for Iraqis who dared to differ with Saddam," he said. Today, Abu Wael stated, times are brutally tough for Christians in Iraq. "The Sunnis have those who support them and the Shia too, but not the Christians. The suffering of Christians in Iraq today goes way beyond words; nobody cares for them; they are totally neglected. It is not just them who are neglected, but they suffer especially," he said. Abu Wael is not interested in voting for the political candidates who are running for election. "Secular or not secular, they do not care for anybody. They just care for their own interests, and if they pay attention to some Shia or some Sunni groups, it is just because they are seeking the support of their constituency," he said. Like Firas and Abu Hussein, Abu Wael is not going to any of the six polling stations that are set by the Out of Country Voting Administration of the Iraqi Independent High Electoral Commission. Raeid, owner of an electricity appliances store in Giza, is also not planning to participate. "I don't think it makes a big difference if the current government of Nuri Al-Maliki is replaced by another government or if the members of the [Senate] are all changed. The problem of Iraq today is not one of representation; it is one of reconciliation among the fighting political forces," he said. Not only is Raeid unenthusiastic about elections, he is apprehensive about them. "Things will be worse because the losers and winners will be soon up in arms against one another and it will be a new round of terrifying bloodshed for which the Iraqi people pay and not those politicians who are protected by the Americans, Israelis and the Iranians," he said. According to Raeid, the elections should have been preceded with a serious and effective reconciliation process that brings together all Iraqi forces and political currents. "If the reconciliation process accepts some and rejects others then there will be no end to the fighting and security will not be attained. This means that elections are pointless," he argued. Nonetheless, scepticism, while predominant among Iraqis in Egypt, is not uniform. Some Iraqis plan on using the voting stations in Cairo, Giza, Mansoura and Alexandria. Wafea, a housewife in her 60s who cries when she thinks of the suffering of her nation, is determined to vote, although she is not really following the details of the political scene in Iraq. "We have relatives and friends back in Iraq. We will call them and ask them who they are voting for and will vote for the same list." She is not sure if this vote would immediately improve the situation in Iraq but Wafea is hopeful that it might help. "Maybe the next government and next parliament will try and make things better for Iraqis," she said. Making things better does not mean much more than providing security and services. "I want to go back home. My house in Baghdad is still there. And if I could have security and some basic services, especially water and electricity, then I will certainly go back," she said. Younger Iraqi men who spoke to the Weekly seemed keener on elections than the elders. In their early 20s, many did not know the pre- sanctions years of Iraq. But they knew the harsh years of Saddam. They believe that things could get better if Iraq is ruled by a leader who has the political firmness of Saddam but not the inflated ego that led to his military and political miscalculations. Iyad Allawi, the strong secular Shia who ran the country briefly as prime minister under occupation, is the choice of many. "Allawi is a strong man who does not mix politics with religion and who does not favour Shias or Sunnis or anybody else," said Samah, a half-Iraqi and half-Egyptian. "Allawi could have good relations with the Americans and with the Iranians as with everybody else, but he would not make Iraq a follower of anybody," insisted Ahmed. "Allawi will be able to control the country and establish good relations with all its neighbours. He showed us he could do this before, and he could do even a better job given the time and the opportunity," said Mouayed. Fares Ali, head of the Egypt office of the Out of Country Voting Administration said his office has a full directory that presents details of all candidates and the lists they are running on. This directory, he added, does not substitute for the electoral campaigns of candidates that were conducted locally and virtually or through envoys. "The directory will be there at every polling station for each voter to look at before he casts his vote," Ali told the Weekly as the preparations for the voting day were being stepped up on Monday morning. Ali said that it is not clear how many eligible Iraqi voters are currently living in Egypt. "We made a rough assessment of a maximum of 40,000 Iraqis who could turn out for the vote on the three days dedicated for the process," he said. According to Ali, the lack of voter lists will not handicap the process. "We registered those who wanted to register in advance and those who will come to vote without previous registration will be allowed to vote on the spot and they will then be registered." The names of voting Iraqis will be reported from every voting station to the Al-Suleimaniya based headquarters of the Out of Country Voting Administration. This headquarters will deal with the votes of some two million eligible Iraqis assessed to be based overseas. It will then convey their votes to Baghdad, where some 14 million votes of Iraqis inside Iraq will be counted. Representatives of competing political forces are allowed by the Independent High Electoral Commission to be present and observe the voting process. They are entitled to report any signs of rigging or voting violations either to the Egypt office or to the headquarters in Al-Suleimaniya. Other international and regional observers will also be present at balloting stations. "We have been talking to eligible voters. We have been explaining the voting procedures and have been encouraging them to vote," Ali said after giving guidance in Giza to a few hundred Iraqis. But Ali is not sure whether a good turnout will occur or not. He acknowledges low enthusiasm in some quarters. Still, he is hoping that Iraqis overseas will actively participate in the electoral process. "Candidates who know that Iraqis overseas helped bring them to power would have to include the demands and interests of those Iraqis on their agenda," Ali stated. Ali Garouch, head of the Arab Desk at the Arab League, acknowledged the concerns of Iraqis residing in Arab states over the imminent elections. However, Garouch said that he hoped the elections would give new positive momentum to the political process in Iraq. "We [in the Arab League] consult closely and talk often with representatives of all political forces in Iraq, and we are providing every possible input to help Iraqis navigate the political process to serve the cause of stability in the country," Garouch said. National elections, the Arab League acknowledged, would not substitute for an all inclusive national reconciliation process that should take into consideration the fears and concerns of all groups. "Back in 2005, the Arab League tried to launch an extensive reconciliation process but this effort was intercepted by the US administration that wanted to reduce Arab input in the new political reality in Iraq," Garouch said. It is not clear whether or not the current US administration would take a more engaging attitude towards the Arab League calling for Iraqi reconciliation, Garouch stated. "We heard some very good statements, but we wait to see compatible deeds," he added. It is also not clear for the Arab League official whether or not the government that will be brought into office by the 7 March elections would show more keenness on using the pan-Arab organisation to promote reconciliation. "For now we are working on monitoring the elections in and out of Iraq, and we are hoping for the best," Garouch stated. He stopped short of saying whether or not he thought things would get better for Iraqis in the near future.
