The source of attacks remains uncertain as strikes against civilians and other "soft" targets in Iraq is on the rise, writes Ramsey Al-Rikabi in Baghdad The conventional wisdom going around after the fall of Baghdad was that the bulk of the subsequent violence was instigated by Ba'athist remnants and former regime members. In the past months, attacks on soldiers have dropped from a high of 50 per day in November to about 20 per day, according to Coalition officials. Officials attribute the decline to an increase in intelligence gathering abilities and the effectiveness of offensive operations, as well as the capture of Saddam Hussein in December. But despite the decline in attacks on US and British troops, Iraq is becoming an increasingly dangerous place for everyone else. Granted, soldiers are still being killed or maimed almost daily, but there has been a shift to so-called "soft" targets, like civilians, police stations or hotels, chosen for their relative lack of protection. Quite recently, targeted killings of civilians have become the newest threat. On Sunday, Iraqi public works minister, Nisreen Berwari, was attacked as she travelled through the increasingly unstable northern city of Mosul. Three people travelling with her were killed, but the minister escaped unharmed. Also in Mosul, a Canadian and a Briton were gunned down outside a power plant. The two were working as security guards for civilian engineers working at the power station. For Coalition soldiers in Iraq, the biggest killer has been what officials here call an improvised explosive device, or IED. Usually, IEDs are simply assembled bombs, using artillery shells or occasionally plastic explosives, and are detonated when troop convoys pass. IEDs have been buried, or hidden in trash and even dead animal carcasses. For civilians and Iraqi security forces, the main threat has been suicide bombings, and now increasingly drive-by shootings. In late March, two Finnish businessmen were gunned down while travelling in Baghdad. A week earlier six US civilians were killed, two of them working for the Coalition. Attacks against Iraqis working in the newly formed security forces have become common. On Tuesday, a car loaded with explosives blew up outside the home of an Iraqi police chief in Hillah, south of Baghdad, killing the attacker and wounding seven others. Last week, a police chief and seven police cadets were killed in Hillah. Also on Tuesday, a convoy carrying foreign contractors was attacked in Mosul, injuring three. Further, at least two people were killed yesterday when their convoy came under attack in Fallkuja, a hotbed of anti-US activity west of Baghdad. Reuters footage showed residents dragging a badly burned body through the streets and throwing stones at another corpse still inside one of the burning cars. As of the time going to print, the number and nationality of those killed remains unknown. Iraqis working alongside the US or with media organisations are increasingly becoming targets as well. Omar Hashim Kamal, an Iraqi who was shot last week while working on assignment for the American news magazine Time, died of his wounds last Friday. Earlier in March, three Iraqi employees of the US-funded radio and television station Al-Hurra were shot and killed in Baquba northeast of Baghdad, and a translator working for Voice of America radio was gunned down along with his mother and daughter. Last Saturday, five people were injured, including three children, after a bomb attack on the home of an Iraqi contractor working with the Coalition. And yesterday six people were injured when a suicide bomber attacked a convoy of government vehicles in Baqouba, northeast of Baghdad. The cars usually transport the governor of the Diala governorate, but he was elsewhere at the time. Security in Iraq is crucial for the political process to move forward. "We need to make sure between now and 31 January [when elections are due to be held] that there is a modicum of security that will make Iraqi people feel they can go to the polls, that they can run as candidates, without extreme fear," Carina Perelli, head of the UN team now in Baghdad, said after meeting with members of the US-appointed Interim Governing Council (IGC). Perelli is leading a UN team in Baghdad to assist the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) and IGC work out the technicalities of setting up elections by early 2005. UN envoy, Lakhdar Labrahimi will travel to Baghdad in April to help work out the formation of an interim sovereign Iraqi government that will take over after 30 June. As targets and methods are shifting towards the less protected, the origins of the attacks are still largely unknown. What insurgents or terrorists in Iraq don't do is claim responsibility. Brigadier General Kimmet, deputy director of operations for the coalition military, believes former regime members and foreign terrorist organisations are beginning to collude in planning and carrying out attacks. "The day we can link a former Iraqi intelligence officer with foreigners linked to Ansar Al-Islam or Al-Qa'eda is not far away," Gen Kimmet said. Gen Kimmet also believes whatever elements of the former regime that are still carrying on the fight have co-opted religious extremist groups for tactical advantage. "They're using religion as an excuse to continue the fight." Although earlier assessments pointed to the presence of foreign terrorists as the source of the bulk of attacks in Iraq, Major General Martin Dempsey, commanding general of the Army's First Armored Division in Baghdad thinks otherwise. "The single biggest impediment to gaining intelligence on homegrown domestic terrorism is an unwillingness on the part of the Iraqi people to acknowledge it." Dempsey's claim can be bolstered if detainee statistics can be used as any indicator of the source of terrorist threats in Iraq. Of the approximately 9,000 prisoners in US custody throughout Iraq, only 130 were captured with foreign passports. The main threats in Iraq, Coalition officials suspect, come from four possible groups: former regime elements, those linked with Al-Qa'eda, terrorist cells directed Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi, and the Ansar Al-Islam group, although significant overlap of operations is likely. Speaking about attacks within Baghdad, General Dempsey believes groups can be identified by the targets they choose. "Groups like Ansar Al-Islam, their signature target seems to us to be those institutions and those establishments that acknowledge and in some cases welcome the presence of Westerners. The Zarqawi target of choice seems to us to be any evidence of progress among the Iraqi people, whether it's their police, their political institutions, their religious freedoms." Zarqawi, a Jordanian with alleged links to Al- Qa'eda, is the suspected mastermind behind several terrorist attacks in Iraq, including the simultaneous bombings in Baghdad and Karbala in March and the bombing of the UN headquarters in Baghdad last August. Spanish authorities believe he is linked to the recent train bombings in Madrid that killed nearly 200 people. The strongest intelligence on Zarqawi that authorities in Iraq have made public is a letter that was intercepted in January allegedly penned by him seeking assistance from Al-Qa'eda leaders. In it, Zarqawi takes credit for 25 attacks within Iraq, a claim US officials here believe to be credible. Ansar Al-Islam is an organisation that was operating in the Kurdish areas of northern Iraq before the war, and the US believes the group has ties to Al-Qa'eda. "Ansar Al-Islam trained in Al-Qa'eda camps in Afghanistan. The group has been one of the leading groups engaged in anti-coalition terrorist attacks in Iraq," a recent US State Department statement said. The Bush administration used this link as part of it's justification for war against Iraq last year, although Ansar Al-Islam ran operations in a part of Iraq beyond Saddam's reach of power, in the areas of Kurdistan that were protected since 1991 by the American and British patrolled no-fly zone. "We cannot stop 100 per cent of terrorists 100 per cent of the time," General Kimmet said, presenting the challenges to post-war Iraq in almost fatalistic terms. The problem of stopping attacks is only compounded by what seems to be a new focus on civilians, Iraqi police or any other target lacking the protection of an army convoy or base. The Coalition has made clear their determination to stay in Iraq, convinced that the stakes are too high to repeat a Lebanon or Somalia where US troops pulled out after startling losses. No doubt, however, the attacks will continue even after sovereignty is handed over this summer.
