To the shock of many, opposition parties may decide not to take part in the first-ever multi-candidate presidential elections they have long campaigned for. Gihan Shahine finds out why Although the opposition has long battled for constitutional reform that allows open presidential elections, leading party members said it is unlikely they will nominate a candidate to contest incumbent President Hosni Mubarak's likely bid for a fifth term. The elections are due in September and there is little time for an opposition candidate to prepare. Members of opposition parties also give a long list of impediments, ranging from a serious shortage in funds and human resources to a serious lack of political freedoms and the need for more details on the mechanisms by which the dramatic move announced by Mubarak on Saturday is to be put into effect. Albeit welcoming President Mubarak's proposal for open polls as "an important stepping stone" towards a more democratic government, party leaders insisted that other extensive political reforms were urgently needed, including an end to Egypt's nearly 25-year-old emergency law. Otherwise, it was feared the move towards multi-party elections would be only cosmetic. "President Mubarak's initiative, albeit great, was so sudden," said Mounir Fakhri Abdel-Nour, Wafd Party spokesman in the People's Assembly. Only last month Mubarak rejected calls for amendments in the Constitution that would provide for multi-party candidates, dismissing such calls as "futile". "We are normally unprepared and no one can get ready to run for presidential elections by the fall," Abdel-Nour said. He was, however, quick to explain that this was his own personal view, insisting that his party "will only be able to decide when parliament discusses the proposal, providing more details on how it is going to work". Abdel-Nour said allowing multi-party elections was a "historic change" which is bound to make headway. In the short-term, however, he insisted nobody would ever be able to contest a president who has been in office for more than 20 years. "My prediction is based on reality," Abdel-Nour told Al-Ahram Weekly. "Not a single party nationwide has the funds needed to run a presidential election campaign, nor the experience, mechanisms and human resources required for that step. How can we simply get all that ready in a few months, knowing that [President Mubarak's proposal for an open vote] will take at least two months of discussion in parliament before it takes its final form." Many seemed convinced that no fair elections can take place in Egypt's current political environment. The emergency law severely restricts the freedom of public assembly, which in practice means any candidate wishing to run for president will have little chance to campaign. "Under the current emergency law, political parties are not allowed to hold any public meetings except in the limited space of their headquarters and under the watchful eye of anti-riot police, the sight of which scares away a lot of an already limited audience," complained Hamed Mahmoud, deputy head of the Nasserist Party. "This system has hindered the emergence of any public figure; potential leaders may be there, but people simply don't get the chance to know them. And in current conditions, it would be a definite loss for any candidate to risk challenging President Mubarak on the ballot." Hussein Abdel-Razeq, secretary-general of the leftist Tagammu Party, said the hegemony of the ruling NDP, which occupies a majority of seats in parliament and the consultative Shura Council, has always kept many people with a potential for leadership away from the public scene. "Our candidates, thus, would need to exert tremendous effort in publicity if they ever challenge in presidential elections," Abdel- Razeq said. "President Mubarak has it all," Mahmoud said. "He rules the media, the ruling party, the state apparatus and executive powers, all besides his experience in the presidency for more than 20 years. Who can challenge all that?" exclaimed Mahmoud, adding, "There is no real chance here. The recent amendment is only one step on a thousand- mile-long path." Which is partly why Abdel-Razeq says the Tagammu Party is not likely to nominate a candidate for the elections unless further political reforms are achieved. "For open polls to make any headway, certain steps should be taken," Abdel-Razeq insisted. These steps, according to Abdel-Razeq, include abolishing the emergency law, designing a new law for the practice of political freedom, and lifting state hegemony over national media, turning it into an open platform for all candidates to present their platforms equally. The Tagammu Party also called for the amendment of the Constitution that restricts the president to a maximum of two shorter terms in office, and limits his currently extensive authority. The party will also call for "authentic democratic change that allows for fair presidential elections." "Our participation in the upcoming elections will depend on whether those amendments will be made," Abdel-Razeq said. Tagammu Party leader Rifaat El-Said said the party will have to wait for at least two months -- until the parliament discusses important details concerning the regulations governing the polling -- before it decides. "It's not an easy decision to nominate a candidate in the forthcoming elections," El-Said told the Weekly. "We need to study it carefully." Said believes the president's initiative "is definitely a victory for the Tagammu Party, which has been campaigning for such a move since 1981, as well as for all opposition forces and civil society. "President Mubarak himself scored a victory by responding to the wishes of his people," Said said. But it seems there is little chance for opposition parties to make much of that "victory", since they do not have the funds needed to run presidential campaigns. "It will cost millions," Said said. "We definitely cannot afford that." Many analysts express scepticism that the extensive political reforms that the parties are pushing for will be achieved in the short term. Mustafa Kamel El-Sayed, professor of political science at Cairo University, says it is unlikely that the amendments that are going to be introduced to a number of laws related to the exercise of the political rights of citizens and political parties and the establishment of an independent electoral commission will go as far as completely satisfying the demands of major opposition political parties. "They might only meet some of their demands." In that case, according to El-Sayed, political parties will find themselves in an "awkward" position. "The opposition cannot reject all these amendments as cosmetic changes, and neither will they want to be seen by the public as incapable of contributing to the democratic transition of the country." That said, El-Sayed believes political parties will participate in the coming elections in order not to miss on "such a huge opportunity, which will allow them to present their programmes to the voters and build up a popular base". He contends that "it is too early to say that no opposition party will present a candidate: the decision surprised many people and political party leaders are naturally unprepared." He added that major opposition parties had been campaigning for the amendment of the Constitution. "Thus, they will be keen not to lose their credibility before the Egyptian voter by declining the opportunity to have a candidate." That, according to El-Sayed, does not necessarily mean that each party would have its own candidate. "A number of parties may decide to unite behind one single candidate," El-Sayed suggested. "They could pool their resources and save part of the enormous cost that will have to be provided for the electoral campaign." Amr Hashim, a political analyst at the Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, thinks political parties have been "submissive or desperate, at best". The latest move, according to Hashim, "has come to further uncover the fragility of the opposition". "Perhaps the next electoral contest will not show parity among candidates," said El-Sayed, "but if other reforms are introduced, particularly ensuring the neutrality of the executive authorities, nationally and locally as well as that of the security forces and public media, it would definitely encourage personalities belonging to political parties as well as independent figures to take the risk and contest the election."
