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Who sits where, and why
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 21 - 07 - 2005

Wider reforms of the UN have been overshadowed by arguments over who gets a seat on the Security Council, writes Gamal Nkrumah
With most African states at best ambivalent about their own chances of securing a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council a growing number are content to delegate responsibility for advancing the continent's interests to a handful of weighty regional players. Only the most populous, relatively wealthy countries, economically advanced and with political clout, stand a chance, they reason.
South Africa, Egypt and Nigeria are generally accepted to be the most serious contenders for a place at the UN's top table though other hopefuls include Ethiopia, Algeria and Libya.
The 53 member African Union (AU) strongly supports the case for establishing permanent African seats on the Security Council. Its current position is that six new permanent seats are needed, two reserved for Africa and all carrying the right to veto, something to which Washington objects strongly.
Rivalry among the major African players has intensified, with many observers arguing that South Africa has the best chance. Such predictions, however, have a long history of coming unstuck.
The future of the world body now hinges on what Washington is willing to accept. The US has already rejected a draft resolution tabled by four countries asking for a radical overhaul of the UN Security Council which at present has only five permanent members who wield a veto -- the US, the UK, France, Russia and China. The council has ten other seats, the occupants of which change every two years. Washington favours two new permanent seats, neither carrying a veto, and one of which the US would like to see occupied by Japan.
There are persistent rumours that Washington might also be willing to contemplate a permanent UN Security Council seat for India, though it has signalled it is not interested in other countries obtaining such a privilege. In a move widely interpreted as a conciliatory gesture towards the US the G4 countries -- Germany, Brazil, India and Japan -- have dropped their demands that new permanent members be granted the veto.
That is unlikely to be enough to win Washington's support for any major reform of the current structure which, to be accepted, will need a two-thirds majority in the General Assembly and even then can be vetoed by any of the current five permanent members.
UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan clearly stated he would prefer a decision on Security Council expansion to be made before the UN summit of world leaders scheduled for September. In March Annan put forward his own proposals for sweeping UN reforms which he stressed were tailored to meeting "today's realities".
Annan also introduced a long list of other measures, including an agreed definition of terrorism, new guidelines for authorising military action and the streamlining of the General Assembly agenda.
The G4's proposal included adding 10 more seats to the 15-member Security Council, six of them permanent. These would go to the G4 and Africa. Indeed, South Africa in particular has been closely coordinating with the G4, though critics have argued their proposal constitutes little beyond a bid for power. That said, the G4 and the AU continue to work together on formulating a joint position on reform.
A consensus on UN reform could well be in the making, despite Washington's insistence that the 191 members of the UN General Assembly remain divided on the subject, and the battle to determine just who should sit permanently on the Security Council is likely to intensify in the weeks ahead, accompanied by a great deal of diplomatic arm twisting.
A vote on the G4 proposal has not yet been scheduled. The deliberations, which kicked off last Monday, show a majority in the General Assembly in favour of the resolution, though not the two-thirds majority it needs to be passed.
It faces a number of rival proposals. Argentina, Italy, Mexico and Pakistan have joined together in a loose alliance under the banner "Uniting for Consensus". They propose adding 10 new non-permanent members who would face re-election.
While the two groups vigorously oppose the other's plans both agree that representation on the Security Council must be expanded to include all continents, with or without veto rights. For its part, the AU is standing firm on its demand that there be two permanent African members, with the veto. It is a position unlikely to win sympathy in Washington.
Much has changed since 1945, when the UN was founded. Asia now has enormous economic clout and it is growing. Russia's political influence is fast waning while Pax-Americana rules supreme. Smaller countries, with less diplomatic leverage, suspect that the contenders for a permanent UN seat are power-hungry seekers of special privileges who merely pretend to be the champions of small, powerless, impoverished and disadvantaged states.
The controversy surrounding permanent seats at the UN Security Council has overshadowed other aspects of UN reform. Egypt has been at the forefront of the debate on UN reform in Africa and has been refining its own Africa policy in a bid to gain support for its own claims to a permanent seat. President Hosni Mubarak took part in last year's New Partnership for African Development (NEPAD) summit held in Algiers while earlier, in April, Egypt played host to the 2005 NEPAD summit.
Egypt is one of the pillars of NEPAD, the AU-sanctioned blueprint for African survival, and at the Sharm El-Sheikh summit Mubarak declared that Egypt is ready to "put its experience and expertise at the disposal of its African brethren".
For his part Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul-Gheit has embarked on three African tours, including trips to the Nile basin nations of Ethiopia, Tanzania and Uganda. Egyptian peacekeeping forces serve in Sudan and Egyptian diplomatic efforts in conflict resolution situations in Africa have been highly praised, particularly in the context of the Sudanese peace process.
Abul-Gheit, was however, critical this week of the open rivalry among African countries concerning the UN seat. German Chancellor Gerhard Schroder, however called President Mubarak to brief him on the German position regarding the UN Security Council reform.
In an attempt to strengthen economic and trade ties with the continent Egypt last month hosted the African trade ministers' conference. Egypt also heads the Africa Group inside the World Trade Organisation (WTO). Cairo is playing an increasingly active role in furthering African interests at international forums promoting intra-African trade and pushing for a fairer international trade system.
Egypt also sought Arab backing for its bid to secure a permanent UN Security Council seat during the last Arab League summit. Observers, though, believe much remains to be done if Egypt is to secure a seat. According to Abdel-Moneim Said, director of Al-Ahram Centre for Strategic and Political Studies, Egypt must improve its human rights record and democratic credentials as a prerequisite for gaining a permanent place on the UN's top table.
Additional reporting Magda El-Ghitany


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