Egypt cannot remain an oasis of relative peace and prosperity as the countries surrounding it fall one by one in a vicious cycle of violence. Iraq, Lebanon, Sudan are in turmoil. The Palestinians are suffering the worst aspects of occupation and repression. The Israelis have virtually re-occupied Gaza. The Palestinians are facing such unspeakable misery. They are trying to resist as best as they can, but they are under tremendous pressure to give up the struggle for survival -- and that they will never succumb to. The tour of United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan coincides with historic developments in the region. These developments are not necessarily positive, though. Indeed, most are ominously grave. The tragic cold-blooded murder of a British tourist and the wounding of several other Western tourists in Jordan is ample proof that there are angry men in the region, many jobless and penniless who abhor Western, and particularly, American Middle East foreign policy. They view the humiliating and oppressive occupation of Muslim nations -- Afghanistan, Iraq, and soon Lebanon and perhaps Sudan -- with disdain. The boundless American backing for the Israeli bombardment of Lebanon left an indelible mark on the psyche of the people of the region. Iraq, embroiled in an intolerable cycle of violence, with daily bombings and wanton sectarian killings and ethnic tensions is still reeling from the disastrous impact of the United States-led occupation of Iraq. The situation in Lebanon is no less serious. The fragile ceasefire still holds, and guns are far from falling silent in the war- torn country. A failed assassination attempt left the deputy head of Lebanon's internal intelligence service injured and a security officer and a civilian were killed in the attack in the southern Lebanese city of Sidon. Obviously, trouble is brewing in Lebanon. However, the most worrying crisis is Sudan's. The country has enormous potential, but it has been paralysed by civil wars. Egypt cannot fathom the idea of a fragmented Sudan. However, what is happening appears to be pointing towards that disastrous conclusion. At this rate Sudan might end up split into several states. That sorry state of affairs would be unacceptable to Egypt. Sudan must remain a sovereign, unified -- albeit federal if needs be -- state. The territorial integrity of Sudan must be respected. In the north of the country, and in the far south of Egypt, there are rumblings of autonomy, even secession among the Nubians. In eastern Sudan, too, there is unrest. The tribes who inhabit the northeastern part of Sudan also inhabit the southeastern Egypt. In short, whatever touches Sudan, touches Egypt, too. The Nile, the lifeline of Egypt, passes through Sudan to Egypt from the Ethiopian highlands and the African Great Lakes region. Sudan, therefore, is of vital strategic importance to Egypt. It is precisely for this reason that political developments in Sudan seriously impact Egypt. If Sudan disintegrates into rival statelets, that would have disastrous consequences on Egypt. The political stability of Egypt's southern neighbour is of vital importance. Sudan is Egypt's strategic depth.
