A more pessimistic outlook for Iraq's future is pervading Washington and London, prompting calls for a swift way out of the war-torn country, writes Salah Hemeid During a videoconference with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki on Saturday, US President George Bush coaxed Al-Maliki back into forming a common front with his administration after days of angry comments by Iraqi leaders about what they regard as US meddling. Neither talked to reporters about their 50- minute video uplink, but a spokesman for Al-Maliki later said the Iraqi premier told Bush that he is America's friend but not its man in Baghdad, a remark which can hardly indicate that tension between the two administrations over how to conduct the conflict is ebbing. The recent events in Iraq are causing growing friction between the Bush administration and Al-Maliki's government. The Bush administration, whose need for a new policy toward Iraq is becoming increasingly obvious, blames Al-Maliki's government for failure to stop sectarian violence. However, the Shiite-led government retorts by accusing the American troops of fuelling public resentment against the occupation through its bloody and miscalculated incursions into Iraqi cities and Baghdad's neighbourhoods in pursuit of the insurgents and militia. Both seem to have lost the commitment to work together for peace and security in Iraq. At least 80 people were killed or found dead in Iraq on Monday, including 33 victims of a bomb attack on workers lined up to find a day's work in Baghdad's Sadr City Shia slum. Also, the US military announced the death of the 100th service member killed in combat this month, bringing the total American casualties to 2814 since the invasion began in 2003. As fighting in Iraq swerved toward civil war, grimmer assessments are coming from Washington and London. October may be remembered as the month that the US experience in Iraq hit a tipping point, when the violence flared and shook both the military command in Iraq and the political establishment back in Washington. Plans to stabilise Baghdad coincided with a surge in violence while sectarian revenge killings spread, consuming the entire Iraqi capital. The past several days have been particularly rough for US-Iraqi relations, with Al-Maliki repeatedly declaring the US was trying to impose timelines for the Iraqi government to take on more responsibility without prior coordination. Al-Maliki was particularly angered by a US-backed Iraqi raid into Sadr City last week, seeking a Shia militia leader accused of being the most notorious of the death-squad leaders, without first seeking his approval. Fearing that soaring violence and the rising death toll will influence next week's mid-term congressional election, the Bush administration has sought to downplay any serious dispute and dispatched US National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley to Baghdad on Monday to mend fences with the prime minister and to get a first-hand report of the situation on the ground from political, economic and security perspectives. With Bush's approval ratings stuck below 40 per cent, and predictions that the Republicans could lose their majority in the Congress the White House officials have begun to indicate that the administration is re-thinking its Iraq war strategy. Searching for a way out, Washington has focused its attention on the work of the Iraq Study Group, a panel of well-connected luminaries led by former Secretary of State James A Baker III and former Representative Lee H Hamilton. Recommendations from the group, once seen as a sop to Congress, are expected in late December or early January and promise to be the first major subject tackled by the members of the next Congress. But leaks made through the US media suggested that the group's option papers would recommend either a scaling back of US ambitions in Iraq, making stability rather than democracy the top priority, or even a slow but steady withdrawal of US forces to be completed before next presidential elections in 2008. In Britain, Prime Minister Tony Blair's Iraqi policies are also under fire, linking them with terrorism at home. Politicians and former generals are voicing concerns about increasing involvement of the British soldiers in the Iraqi quagmire. Blair, a staunch ally of the Bush administration, is also facing demands to agree to set up a dateline for withdrawing the British troops from Iraq. On Monday a survey by polling firm YouGov and the Daily Telegraph showed that a majority of Britons believe the country should withdraw its troops from both Iraq and Afghanistan within a year regardless of the local situation in either country. There is little question, therefore, that the next few weeks will see a major turning point in the US and British strategies in Iraq. One of the solutions which is widely being speculated is a coup d'état, some sort of military takeover that would oust the elected government. It could be done under a constitutional fig leaf, such as having Al-Maliki resign, thus creating a political vacuum and paving the way for a military junta to take over, where the United States would look the other way. Indeed, well-informed Iraqi politicians told Al-Ahram Weekly that discussions of a coup have been underway for some time between American and Iraqi officers. One politician stated that several Iraqi leaders, who have been working closely with the Americans even before the 2003 war that toppled Saddam Hussein, are also involved in the discussions. Another politician said Iraqi army officers are planning to stage a military coup with US help to oust Al-Maliki's government once he exhausts efforts to end violence. Politicians visiting Cairo last week said that several top army officers have visited Washington recently for talks with US officials on plans for replacing A-Maliki's government by a "national salvation" government with the mission to re- establish security and stability in Iraq. The Iraqi politicians, who requested anonymity, said the Iraqi army officers' visit to the United States was designed to discuss the coup possibility and coordinate the military movements once such an option arises in case of a failure of Al-Maliki's government to restore order. He said among the prominent officers were the deputy chief of staff, a Muslim Shiite, the intelligence chief, a Sunni, and the commander of the air force, a Kurd. It is believed the three, who represent the current sectarian and ethnic make up of Iraqis, would form the nucleus of the next government after the army takes over power. According to a third Iraqi politician, the coup idea has not reached the planning stage and it is still under discussion. He claims, via telephone from Baghdad, that under the proposals, units from the new Iraqi army, with the assistance of US forces, will take control, suspend the constitution, dissolve parliament and form a new government. He further suggests that martial law and a state of emergency will also be declared as the military takes direct control of the Iraqi provinces and local administrations. He also said that certain Arab countries were informed of the plan and were requested to offer their help in convincing the leaders of the former Baath Party regime residing in their countries to support the move and stop the party-led insurgency in Iraq. In return, they will be invited to participate in the government at a later stage. On 23 October the pan-Arab Al-Hayat daily quoted Iraqi leaders as saying talks about a coup inside the Baghdad Green Zone are rampant. "Al-Maliki was democratically elected and he cannot be deposed through a military coup," said Walid Al-Helli, member of the political bureau of Dawa Party. "The Americans are changing their course by 180 degrees, I cannot rule out that they will use Al-Maliki as a scapegoat," said Kurdish lawmaker Mahmoud Othman. On Tuesday the London-based Al-Quds Al-Arabi reported that US- backed head of intelligence Gen Mohamed Abdullah Al-Shahwani was moved to neighbouring Jordan after threats to assassinate him following the coup reports. Short of "cutting and running", the coup solution may be the Bush administration's least repellent option for an exit from Iraq. But not even this will end the plight of Iraqis or halt their country slipping into further chaos. It might even be a recipe for its division into three sectarian entities which many in Washington advocate if the United States wants to avoid a Vietnamisation of the Iraq war.
