Dina Ezzat reports on Arab diplomatic efforts to prevent Iraq and Lebanon from sinking deeper into chaos Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa was expected to arrive in Washington yesterday on a one-week visit in which he will meet with senior US and UN officials in Washington and New York. Developments in Iraq and Lebanon will top the agenda of discussions. "It is clear the US is reconsidering its policy towards the Middle East at a particularly crucial moment. What Moussa will try to do during his talks with American officials and influential think- tankers is to present an Arab perspective of the on-going debate," Moussa's chief of staff Hesham Youssef told Al-Ahram Weekly. Moussa's visit to the US comes at a time of increasing sectarian violence in Iraq and political polarisation in Lebanon. It follows on the heels of intensive Arab diplomatic efforts -- collective and Egyptian-Saudi -- to contain Shia-Sunni, and other sectarian, confrontations. The visit comes days after US President George W Bush presented the Iraqi government with an ultimatum to get their act together, and after Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has been urging key regional capitals, including Cairo and Riyadh, to use their influence on Sunni factions in Iraq and Lebanon. With two major reports on the need to adjust policy in Iraq, produced by the Pentagon and the Hamilton-Baker Committee, the US is reportedly considering a dramatic change in its policy towards Iraq. "We are going to withdraw from Iraq on a phased 18-month scheme and we are going to declare victory and leave it to the Iraqis and the regional players to put the situation in order," predicted one member of the US Congress. Senior Iraqi sources say they have reached agreement with Washington on the details of the gradual withdrawal of US troops. Within the next six months, they say, Iraqi troops will be in control of most crucial areas, including Baghdad. On Tuesday Robert Gates, approved by the Senate as defence secretary, said that his "greatest worry if we mishandle the next year or two and leave Iraq in chaos is that a variety of regional powers will become involved in Iraq and we will have a regional conflict on our hands". Gates's statements came on the eve of yesterday's publication in the US of the Iraq Study Group's report compiled by a high-level panel headed by James Baker and Lee Hamilton. "We do not recommend a 'stay the course' solution. In our opinion that approach is no longer viable," Baker said. The report recommended that the US should reduce its "political, military or economic support" for Iraq if the government in Baghdad cannot make substantial progress towards providing for its own security. "Our most important recommendations call for new and enhanced diplomatic political efforts in Iraq, and the region and a change in the primary mission of the US force in Iraq that will enable the US to begin to move its combat forces out of Iraq responsibly," the report concluded. Many Arab capitals favour a less aggressive and provocative US military presence in Iraq. Like Gates, though, there are concerns -- especially in Riyadh -- of the impact a sudden down-sizing of US troops will have, and its possible spill over effects. This week, and jointly with Cairo, Riyadh underlined the need for the US to coordinate future moves with all concerned capitals and not just with the Iraqi governments. While aware of the differences between sectarian violence in Iraq and polarisation in Lebanon, Arab capitals hope they can work closely with the Americans, and the French, to gradually defuse tensions in both countries. On Tuesday a limited Arab foreign ministers meeting to discuss developments in both Iraq and Lebanon was held at the headquarters of the Arab League. The meeting voiced concern over recent developments in both countries and called upon political adversaries to meet compromise. According to the final communiqué Iraqi factions will be re-approached and asked to work towards an all-inclusive reconciliation conference to be held under the umbrella of the Arab League -- tentatively in Baghdad -- within four months. Addressing a press conference after the meeting on Tuesday, Moussa said that as a crucial part of the preparations leading up to the reconciliation meeting, the Iraqi government should take steps to dissolve all militias implicated in sectarian violence. Behind closed doors Moussa and Arab foreign ministers -- Syria was not present -- promised Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshiar Zebari they would cooperate closely with the Iraqi government on condition that it resisted what was described as "Iranian attempts to control Iraq or create an independent Shia state in southern Iraq". Zebari promised cooperation but insisted that Arab countries need to send "more positive signals to all Iraqis" to stop Shias in Iraq from perceiving Arab states as an exclusively pro-Sunni force. According to informed Iraqi sources, Zebari told his counterparts at the meeting that his government has turned down an offer of becoming part of a proposed Iranian-Syrian-Iraqi axis. The Arab ministerial meeting also discussed ways to contain sectarian strife in Lebanon. In a separate communiqué Arab foreign ministers called on Lebanon to react positively to the reconciliation proposal offered by Moussa during talks with leading Lebanese political figures while on a two-day visit to Beirut on Sunday and Monday. During talks with Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Al-Seniora, and to Parliamentary Speaker Nabih Beri whose Shia Amal Movement is supporting the Hizbullah- led call for the formation of a national unity government, Moussa proposed a middle-of-the-road formula in which the opposition is given a more influential role in government in return for supporting the work of the international tribunal that will try suspects involved in the killing of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Al-Hariri. Moussa also suggested that both sides should meet to agree on a new electoral law that would allow for legislative and other elections to take place earlier than scheduled. In his press conference on Tuesday, Moussa declined to confirm or deny the details of his proposal, saying consultations with Lebanese leaders were on-going. He also declined to confirm reports that he has been in contact with Damascus over developments in Lebanon. While in the US Moussa is expected to encourage the re-engagement of Syria as a regional player. "Arabs should not be part of any attempt to isolate Syria -- rather the opposite," Moussa insisted on Tuesday. Given the Baker-Hamilton report is expected to urge the US administration to engage Syria in solving the Iraqi debacle, Moussa's call for Washington to rethink its policy vis- à-vis Damascus is unlikely to fall on deaf ears.
