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A fragile truce
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 01 - 02 - 2007

But will it hold? Dina Ezzat in Cairo and Khaled Amayreh in Gaza examine the prospects for the latest Palestinian ceasefire
A million and a half Gazans are reeling after a week of ferocious infighting between Hamas and Fatah left more than 32 people dead and many more injured, bloody clashes that have pushed Palestinians one step closer to the brink of civil war.
On Monday Egyptian mediators, working around-the-clock, succeeded in getting officials from the two warring parties to end the fighting and agree on measures to prevent further outbreaks of violence. The Egyptian-brokered agreement between Fatah and Hamas was reached after a meeting in Gaza between Palestinian Prime Minister Ismail Haniya and Rawhi Fattuh, an emissary of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. The agreement stipulates an immediate end to armed clashes, the removal of all armed men from the streets, the dismantling of roadblocks and the release of abductees.
Despite general compliance by both sides sporadic shooting could still be heard in some parts of the Gaza Strip, especially the north. The most serious violation of the ceasefire occurred in Khan Younis on Tuesday when gunmen, believed to be members of the Preventive Security Force (PSF), assassinated a member of Hamas's military wing, the Izziddin Al-Qassam Brigades. The assassination occurred shortly after a PSF officer died of injuries sustained in earlier fighting with Hamas forces.
Despite the gravity of the incident the two sides released hostages and have agreed on measures to prevent violence spreading to the West Bank, where Fatah gunmen have abducted Hamas officials. Most, if not all, of the abductees were subsequently released.
While there was hope yesterday that the truce would hold, Egyptian officials are under no illusions about the challenges ahead. Those close to the inter-Palestinian mediation file point to the complex internal and regional factors affecting Palestinian decision-making on both sides.
In Gaza Egypt's security team has been pressing Hamas and Fatah leaders to abide strictly by the ceasefire, warning both sides that Egypt would name whichever party violates the agreement.
It is too early to tell whether the Egyptian- mediated agreement will lead to lasting calm or be just another short-lived ceasefire. The fragility of the situation has been undermined by public statements by the warring factions, each accusing the other of ill will. Fawzi Barhoum, a Hamas leader in Gaza, accused maverick Fatah leader Mohamed Dahlan of acting as the "chairman of the PA in the Gaza Strip".
"It seems as if President Mahmoud Abbas has delegated all his security powers to Dahlan. Abbas is deliberately staying abroad to allow Dahlan to commit more crimes." Barhoum's remarks reflect widespread bitterness against Abbas's perceived indifference to the fighting.
Abbas, who met with President Hosni Mubarak in Cairo on Tuesday morning, said "there are no firm and final guarantees that the truce will hold. Egypt is trying to help us and we hope we will all succeed."
Informed sources say one goal of the Egyptian- Palestinian talks is to end the "shocking state of security chaos", with Cairo working to encourage Hamas to integrate its Executive Forces into three security bodies under the command of the Palestinian minister of interior.
Egypt is also trying to secure an agreement between Hamas and Fatah over the nomination of a non-partisan and nationally credible minister of interior. "This is crucial to stabilising security. It is also crucial to the formulation of a national unity government," said one Egyptian source.
Cairo is also encouraging Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to prevent security bodies under his command from taking orders from Fatah members whose agendas are incompatible with a durable truce. The objective, sources in Cairo and Gaza confirm, is to make of the multiple Palestinian security bodies a national force rather than a collection of factional forces.
It was an issue that topped the agenda of talks held in Cairo on Tuesday between Abbas and Intelligence Chief Omar Suleiman. Abbas appeared receptive to Egyptian demands, while Hamas welcomed the proposal.
Egyptian mediators, who are operating under direct instructions from Suleiman, realise that without a solid political agreement on hardcore issues their best efforts may not be sufficient to end the confrontation. Hence the proposal by the Egyptian security delegation to Gaza that the two sides immediately begin intensive talks on basic guidelines for a negotiated settlement between the Palestinians and Israel.
Sources say Egypt has appealed for "sincere Arab efforts" to end the crisis to be coordinated, believing it is important to avoid different -- even conflicting -- scenarios of how to attain that goal.
Cairo is happy with the appeal made by the Saudi Monarch King Abdullah earlier this week for the fighting Palestinian factions to consider meeting in Mecca. "This was a timely and wise appeal," said one Egyptian source, adding that there is no contradiction between the Saudi call for a meeting in Mecca and the "on-the-ground mediation the Egyptian security delegation is conducting in Gaza".
Both Hamas and Fatah welcomed the Saudi invitation and are expected to dispatch representatives to Mecca -- possibly next week.
During a phone call with Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad on Tuesday evening President Mubarak secured the support of Damascus -- where many senior Hamas leaders live -- for an intensive round of meetings that will take place in the next few days aimed at consolidating the truce and moving towards forming a national unity government.
In a parallel development Fatah leaders from the West Bank, headed by Qaddura Fares, a close confidant of imprisoned Fatah leader Marwan Al-Barghouthi, met in Damascus on Tuesday with Hamas politburo chief Khaled Mashaal. The two sides reportedly discussed the issue of a national unity government.
According to statements made by Abbas in Cairo on Tuesday the Palestinian president will meet senior Hamas leaders in Damascus, and later in Cairo, as soon as an agreement on the national unity government is reached. Abbas did not, however, commit himself to a deadline, saying that "if we fail to have a national unity government we will have to go for early elections".
The early elections scenario has little support in Arab capitals, where it is feared it could lead to further clashes.


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