The race for the Tunisian presidential elections has begun, with 70 candidates filing their applications with the Tunisian Electoral Commission and up to 10 more declaring their intention to follow suit. The elections are slated for 23 November. For the past two weeks, the lakeside headquarters of the Electoral Commission has been a busy spot for applicants and journalists alike. The media frenzy has been such that scuffles often break out among the crowds of reporters and fixers gathered at its gates. Thus far, everything has been going according to plan, although fears of terrorism still loom large in the minds of the public. Some analysts have explained the large number of candidates as the result of the nation's desire to shake off the stagnation of the past. Others say that had the political scene been more organised, fewer candidates with more prospects would have appeared on the scene, a situation that could have been more reassuring for voters. A gap, they say, has been developing between the political elite, whose members are vying for power, and the disenchanted masses who in some cases have been stretched almost beyond endurance by the country's failing economy and rising joblessness. The candidates competing for the country's top post come from varied backgrounds. Some served as ministers under former president Zine Al-Abidine Ben Ali, while others are potential allies of the Ennahda Movement, the country's largest Islamist group, which is not fielding candidates. Others are members of civil society and the judiciary. It is not clear who has the best chance of winning, but some candidates are in stronger positions than others. One of these is Al-Hachemi Hamdi, a London-based journalist whose application papers were filed with the Electoral Commission by his supporters as soon as it opened its offices on 8 September. Hamdi, who hasn't lived in Tunisia for years, made an unexpectedly strong showing in the last elections, when his independent list secured 29 seats in the Constituent Assembly. He owns the Al-Mustakillah satellite TV station that broadcasts from London. Born in Sidi Buzid, the cradle of the revolution, Hamdi may lack a clear political programme, but he is widely respected by many politicians, including his rivals. Beji Caid Al-Sebsi, another leading candidate, was prime minister during the elections to the Constituent Assembly, carrying them out with a mixture of cunning and firmness. Many Tunisians see the aging Al-Sebsi, now 79 years old, as a figure of authority and competence. He served both as interior and defence minister under former president Habib Bourguiba and enjoys some popularity among the pre-revolutionary elite. His group, the Call of Tunisia, was the country's largest opposition bloc during the post-revolution rule of the so-called troika government, but his call for the complete separation of state and mosque has been frowned upon by Islamists. Mustafa Kamal Nabli, an independent, is the only former minister to have stepped down from his post during Ben Ali's period in power. He served as the Central Bank governor after the revolution but had to quit over differences with then interim president Moncef Marzouki. Nabli has good relations with international organisations such as the World Bank and the IMF, and has advocated economic reforms combining market forces with social development. However, his appeal is mostly confined to the educated classes, and he may have trouble getting his point of view across to Tunisia's poorer strata. Former Assembly president Mustafa ben Jaafar and former interim president Moncef Marzouki have good track records, but so far neither has obtained the endorsement of the most important partner in the former troika, Ennahda. Their terms in office during turbulent times may also have eroded their popularity, and their parties, Takattul and the Congress for the Republic, do not seem to have captured the public's imagination. Mohammad Hamedi and Ahmed Nejib Chebbi are both running as candidates for the fragmented democratic current. Chebbi, whose Democratic Progressive Party did not fare well in the Assembly elections, was regional development minister before the revolution. Observers note that he may be an acceptable candidate for Ennahda, as he is one of the few who defended the Islamists during Ben Ali's time. It might have been assumed that the political lives of former Ben Ali aides Mondher Zenaidi, Kamal Morjan, and Abdel-Rahim Zouari were over, but the uncertainties of the transitional phase may have made some Tunisians yearn for what they now remember as the steady, if restricted, predictability of pre-revolutionary times. However, many Tunisians are averse to the return to power of former officials and ask whether Ben Ali too will now return to office. Though the managerial skills of these former government officials cannot be denied, few expect them to do well in the elections. However, Zanaidi still has some popularity in the countryside, while Morjan is well connected and had an impressive career as a politician and diplomat. Kalthoum Kennou and Habib Al-Zamali were among the country's most influential figures during the writing of the new constitution. Their independence from the political parties may endear them to voters who disapprove of the country's current political elite. However, their lack of political experience and a clear programme may hamper their chances in the elections. Other independent candidates include Al-Arabi Nusra, owner of the Hannibal TV station, and Zeyad Hani, a key figure in the Journalists' Association. Neither seems to have serious chances of winning the elections. According to Tunisia's new constitution, the prime minister is supposed to wield more power than the president. Noting the enthusiasm of the candidates for the presidential elections, it might seem that some have forgotten this important detail.
