Though floundering for three months in political discord, Tunisians have failed to agree on a leader to rescue the so-called national dialogue launched last month after two missed deadlines. “We have decided to suspend the national dialogue until there are favourable grounds for talks to succeed,” said Houcine Abbasi, head of the Tunisian General Labour Union (UGTT) federation mediating the crisis, late on Monday. The ruling troika government has agreed to resign within three weeks, the representatives that had withdrawn from the Constituent Assembly have returned to take part in the constitutional drafting process, and the national dialogue started. The ruling Islamists and the opposition opened hard-won talks on 25 October to form a government of independents, draft a much-delayed constitution and prepare for elections as part of a roadmap with a tight timetable. Participants in these negotiations were set to agree upon a technocratic government that would administer the affairs of the country until elections are held and permanent government institutions established. Yet, in tandem with these political breakthroughs, Tunisia also faced serious security threats in the form of an unprecedented outbreak of terrorist attacks that had claimed the lives of many National Guard officers and soldiers. In fact, negotiating parties in the national dialogue prime objective was to reach an agreement over a national figure to assume the premiership during the remainder of the interim period, however many observers believed that the spirit of consensus was still slim. Because prospects of any progress in the national dialogue had been very dim, observers believed that the three weeks that were stipulated for this initiative were insufficient to achieve its aims, which included completing the draft of the country's new constitution, creating an independent electoral commission and setting a date for the elections. In addition, the current government may not leave power by the end of the stipulated period if progress is not made in the Constituent Assembly. The talks began to fall behind schedule within the first week. Participants were expected to have agreed on a prime minister by Saturday, yet by Monday they still had not produced a name. In a press conference on 23 October and in a written document submitted that week, current Prime Minister Ali Laarayedh affirmed that his government would step aside after the three-week period. However, he added that this would be on the condition that the new constitution was ratified by that time. This is an unlikely prospect as the ratification procedure, which is required to proceed chapter by chapter, may be a protracted process. Tunisia may therefore be facing another flare-up of political tensions, since the opposition parties are adamant that the government resign at the designated time under the dialogue initiative's roadmap. This roadmap was formulated and sponsored by a quartet headed by the UGTT and three other civil society organisations: the Araf Organisation, the Tunisian League for the Defence of Human Rights and the National Association of Judges. The roadmap was formally approved by the opposition parties and by two of the three members of the troika government. However, the Conference for the Republic Party, to which interim President Moncef Marzouki belongs, refused to sign. Marzouki has stated on numerous occasions that he will only hand over the reins of office to an elected president. The situation in Tunisia has grown more fraught and complex with the onset of a wave of confrontations between the security forces and the radical Salafist groups aligned with the Ansar Al-Sharia organisation. Headed by Abu Ayad, this movement was classified as a terrorist organisation by the current government after it was proven to have been involved in a series of political assassinations, attacks against the US embassy, and other acts of violence in the capital and elsewhere in the country. The wave of terrorist attacks by affiliates of this organisation erupted in Goubellat, a governorate located 60km west of the capital where two National Guard soldiers were killed. The trail then led to Sidi Bouzeid, the “cradle of the revolution”, where inspections and police raids led to the arrest of several radical Salafis, the confiscation of large quantities of arms, and the discovery of maps and other documents indicating potential targets for terrorist operations. The spectre of violence has also extended to Sousse and Munastir on the eastern coast, where there have been attempts to bomb a tourist facility and the tomb of the former Tunisian nationalist leader Habib Bourguiba. The attacks were aborted, however, and police arrested a 19-year-old youth in possession of an explosives belt who had been wanted by the authorities in connection with four other incidents. The security forces and the army have raised their state of alert, and security has been tightened in strategic areas, such as the entrances to cities and major landmarks, in anticipation of possible acts of violence, sabotage or terrorism. The ministry of the interior has declared its resolve to combat the phenomena, stressing on numerous occasions that deaths among the ranks of the security soldiers and officers will not divert it from its duty to protect the people and the nation from the threat of terrorism. All political parties, including the Islamist-oriented Al-Nahda Party, have condemned the terrorist acts. Some parties have also levelled fingers of accusation against the troika, headed by Al-Nahda, for having failed to address this phenomenon from the outset, thereby allowing it to spiral. In a televised interview, Al-Nahda Movement leader Rachid Al-Ghanouchi countered the charges, saying that terrorism had existed before Al-Nahda assumed power and that the Movement opposed all violence perpetrated in the name of religion. He added that the aim of the terrorist acts was to obstruct the transitional process and to undermine the revolution, which was on the verge of reaching one of its most important goals — the ratification of the new constitution and the establishment of the institutions of a democratic state. Analysts regard the national dialogue initiative, which finally got off the ground last week after a several round of negotiations and false starts, as Tunisia's last hope to resolve the steadily worsening political, social and economic crisis that has gripped the country for more than two years. They fear that the situation in the country will deteriorate drastically if the dialogue collapses. The roadmap that was sponsored by the quartet of civil society organisations and ratified by most political parties represented in the Constituent Assembly features two tracks. The first entails the completion of the transitional process and calls for the Constituent Assembly to resume work and complete its task of producing a new constitution within a period not to exceed four weeks starting from the opening session of the national dialogue. It also calls for the completion of the selection of the members of the independent higher election commission within a week, the promulgation of an electoral law within two weeks, the designation of dates for holding national elections within two weeks after the establishment of the electoral commission, and the ratification of the constitution within four weeks at most, using a committee of experts to expedite the ratification process so that it can be completed within the stipulated period. The second track concerns the formation of a new government, and here the process is supposed to unfold in tandem with the preceding track and begin with talks over the choice of an independent national figure that will be charged with forming a new government. According to the roadmap, an agreement over this prime minister was to be reached within a week at most from the start of the dialogue. The appointed prime minister would then conduct talks to form a cabinet, which would be completed within a maximum of two weeks. The current government is expected to resign within at most three weeks after the first session of the national dialogue, at which point the Constituent Assembly would approve and swear in the new government. By ratifying the roadmap, the political parties committed themselves to sustaining the national dialogue, under the sponsorship of the four civil society organisations, as a framework for resolving any outstanding differences that might obstruct the successful completion of the transitional phase and the new government's assumption of its duties.
