The Ancient Greek historian Herodotus said that Egypt was the gift of the Nile. But the row over the country's share in the river's water has created shock waves at home. Egypt's share of the Nile water, 55.5 billion cubic metres per annum, is in danger, analysts warn. Ethiopia and six other countries in east and central Africa are due to sign on Friday a framework agreement, replacing a 1929 treaty between Egypt and Britain that gave Egypt veto power over upstream projects. "What will happen to us if they sign a pact on May 14? I believe the agreement will be like those pacts they rejected. We will reject it too. They cannot revoke existing pacts and they won't be able to implement their new agreement," Maghawri Diab, the ex-Principal of Menoufia University, told the Egyptian Mail in an interview. "First of all we need to define the Nile Basin as a drainage basin, which has an input, or recharge area, an output, or discharge area, and a running course. The Nile is a drainage basin that comprises lots of streams, combining into a main channel." The Nile stretches from Lake Victoria to the Mediterranean, and covers an area of at least 3,349,000 square kilometres. Its average discharge is about 300 million cubic metres per day. The ten Nile Basin countries are Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Sudan, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda. "The source areas are the Ethiopian Highlands in the east [representing around 85 per cent], and the Equatorial Lakes Plateau [around 15 per cent]," said Diab, who is a water professor and Secretary-General of el-Menoufia Governorate. "The springhead regions aren't plain land like Egypt's Delta. These regions are mainly waterfalls, grooves and slopes. The topography is very harsh. Now it is very difficult to change the course of water, but in the future who knows what might be possible," he said, downplaying any serious dangers in the short and medium term. According to him, investments in this region mean water, and water means power, and power means dams. But could these projects affect Egypt in a serious way? "No. And they won't affect us for the coming 100 years. The dams have an effect on water stored at Lake Nasser by changing the times of year water reaches the Aswan High Dam." Back to the drainage basin one-entity conception, which make us understand the nature of the problem, as he put it. "The drainage basin has been a controversial issue in international law. There are two terms that should be defined: international drainage basin and international stream. From a legal and technical perspective, it is a drainage basin, which includes all streams and even groundwater," he explained. "There's consensus that no country outside the drainage basin would share the water. Co-operation among the countries sharing the same basin is also a must. "Rain falling on the Ethiopian Highlands and the Equatorial Lakes Plateau is estimated at 580 billion cubic metres [bcm] and 540bcm annually. Around 93 per cent of this water is lost, leaving roughly 7 per cent for use. "Egypt is more than 95 per cent dependent on the Nile. Uganda and Kenya rely on the Nile for only 3 and 1.5 per cent of their water needs respectively. The Democratic Republic of Congo has no reliance on the Nile in any way, as it has got its own huge Congo River." Egypt signed the 1929 Nile agreement with Britain when its population stood at around 20 million. Egypt's water share before the High Dam was 48bcm. The 1959 agreement with Sudan was different, but it didn't revoke the 1929 pact, he stressed. "The Nile used to lose 22bcm in the Mediterranean Sea annually. The High Dam was a means to save that loss. The purpose of the 1959 agreement was to share this extra 22bcm. According to the pact, Egypt gets 7.5bcm and Sudan gets the remainder. "Until 2050, Egypt will need an extra 32bcm annually to meet growing needs, while Sudan and Ethiopia will need around 12bcm and 9bcm respectively until 2050. The Nile Basin countries will need an estimated 72bcm annually. This fact necessitates co-operation that should be streamlined. "Co-operation is based on two principles: fair use and non-harm. Ethiopia rejects all pacts regarding the Nile. Around 71bcm of 84bcm of water comes from Ethiopia annually. As we drink the same water, co-operation is a must. "Therefore, Techo-Nile and Hydromet for Technical Co-operation were created before Indigo, which was founded in 1983 to boost co-operation of the Basin countries in the field of development." "Then the Nile Basin Initiative [NBI] was launched in 1999, in order to bolster economic co-operation and combat poverty. The initiative has launched more than 20 projects, covering power generation, land reclamation and many others," Diab added. The NBI hasn't materialised into a pact yet, due to the rejection of the water security provision, which gives Egypt a share of 55.5bcm a year. "While studying a legal framework for NBI projects, the seven countries of the Nile upstream have called on Egypt to drop its 55.5bcm annually, if the initiative can reduce water waste from the Nile Basin," he explained. Some analysts blame successive Egyptian governments for what is happening now. Diab believes that this is not the whole reason. "In the 1960s, as soon as Tanzania had gained independence, its President at that time, Julius Nyerere, sent a letter to Gamal Abdel-Nasser, saying that Tanzania didn't accept any colonial-era pacts regarding the Nile water. Wasn't Nyerere a friend of Nasser?" According to Diab, this situation should've been expected, as it comes as no surprise within the context of history. The seven countries seek to reallocate water quotas equally without any water security, as provisioned in the 1929 pact. But is this technically possible? "No, it's not possible at present. They cannot keep water from Egypt by any means… Say they build dams. That affects Egypt. So prior notification is a must," stressed Diab. Over the past decades, Egypt hasn't objected to any dam constructions in the Nile Basin. Dams like Khashm el-Girba and Gabal el-Awlia in Sudan and Owen Dam on Lake Victoria have never been a matter of conflict. "Some people talk about water waste in Egypt. This is another story. The waste is from our share. We don't misuse other countries' water. This share is limited and we rely heavily on it. The matter isn't about historical rights. It's a matter of life and death." Away from the conspiracy theory, Diab believes it's also a matter of economic interest rather than anything else. "There's a growing interest from all around the world in this region. The US, European countries, China and even some Arab countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been investing in these countries. "In comparison, what have we got for this region? Co-operation which doesn't exceed LE50 million [$8.9 million], while European aid for Ethiopia alone hit $3 billion." Some extremists call for trading water, treating it as a natural resource like oil. There are voices in the Nile Basin countries calling for putting a price on water. "It's a drainage basin of one entity, where upstream countries cannot have all the water for themselves. I think they are following the example of Turkey. "Turkey rejects admitting that the Euphrates and Tigris rivers have international basins. It claims it is its right to sell water as Arabs sell oil. But the situation in the Anatolia Plateau [from where the two rivers stem] is totally different."
