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Percentage module
Published in The Egyptian Gazette on 19 - 06 - 2012

JUDGING by early and unofficial indicators of the results of voting in the presidential election run-off, one observation would attract special attention and due contemplation; namely, that the winner, whoever he may be, will be so declared on the basis of a lead in the slightly-over-50% range.
It is indeed quite a new pattern of the geography of political competition in this part of the world. Gone are the days when candidates in presidential and other elections were declared winners by record results of a little less 100% of the total number of the ballots cast.
An insight into the emergence of this pattern would directly lead to identifying a fresh distribution of the political preferences of the electorate. This emerging reality does point, in turn, to a large extent of even-handedness in the steering and handling of the whole process. Without such even-handedness, it would have been virtually impossible to reach a plausible and considerably acceptable outcome.
Given that the world in the second decade of the 21st Century is very much up or in the digital space, so much so that knowledge and information have become fairly accessible to people, all people, it would be quite logical to anticipate equally fair distribution of thoughts and ideas. Perhaps one forthright reflection of this understanding on politics may be found in election processes that are held as an intrinsic part of a larger and more inclusive ecosystem of democracy.
Wherever in the length and breadth of the world free and democratic elections take place, the tiny majority model seems to function as the defining factor in giving shape to change, be it in the composition of the legislature or in the political leadership. The latest French presidential election is a good case in point, with Francois Hollande winning 51.7% of the total number of votes versus 48.3% for Nicolas Sarkozy.
In a world distinguishingly characterised by the convergence of advanced digital technology and media, conventional and new, the slight lead margin is making headway as the trend of our times.
It is also comprehensible that that very module, in the case of Egypt, seems to have been partly received as if it were not feasible. One reason underlying that mood is probably the absence of a precedent, given that this is the first time ever in the known history of Egypt that people exercised the right to freely and democratically choose the head-of-state.
Another reason may be that stunning-victory has for long been the dominant and almost irresistible pattern of the outcome of political competitions, with the ensuing conclusion that a banging victory for one party meant a simultaneously humiliating defeat for the competitor.
A third reason could be that of the noticeable lack of credible public opinion polling mostly because of the freshness of the free campaigning practice and the past failure of published polls in predicting the outcome of the first round of the presidential election with reasonable precision or near exactitude.
Apart from that overview, and even though the final and official results of the presidential election have not yet been duly released by the competent authority, the Higher Presidential Election Commission (HEPC), it remains plausible to assume that the new slight lead module will continue to shape political competitions in the foreseeable future for the simple reason that it is one module that is highly compatible with the new world where politics, technology and media do form a truly converged structure.


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