Israel's proposed withdrawal from Gaza opens up a hornet's nest of security issues for Egypt. Galal Nassar explores the possible scenarios Although the assassination of Hamas leader Ahmed Yassin may slow the pace of Israel's proposed withdrawal from Gaza, the unilateral move remains inevitable. The 1979 peace treaty between Egypt and Israel may be amended as a result. Consultations have already been taking place among Egyptian, Palestinian, and Israeli security delegations on the final arrangements concerning Israel's intended withdrawal. Egyptian security delegations were scheduled to head to Gaza for talks with Palestinian security officials. Colonel Jabril Al-Rajjub, Palestinian President Yasser Arafat's national security adviser, told Al-Ahram Weekly that Egypt has promised to help the Palestinians improve the security situation in Gaza. Maj Gen Omar Soleiman, Egypt's head of intelligence, relayed a pledge to President Arafat in Ramallah to this effect last week. Al- Rajjub said that the Egyptian commitment was made on behalf of President Hosni Mubarak; Egypt is expected to reorganise, train, and rehabilitate Palestinian security services according to the needs of the coming phase. News has also been leaked of Egyptian-Israeli discussions regarding amendments that might be introduced to the peace agreement signed in 1979, as part of the preparations for a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and the return of the strip to Palestinian sovereignty. The withdrawal plan calls for evacuating 17 settlements in Gaza as well as several isolated settlements in the area close to the borders between Gaza and Israel. Speaking to the Israeli press ahead of Israeli foreign minister Silvan Shalom's visit to Cairo last week, Mubarak said that it would be necessary to make a slight amendment to the Egyptian-Israeli Camp David accords in order to allow Egypt to tighten security -- by boosting the presence of Egyptian border guards -- at its borders with Gaza. Israel has openly expressed its desire that Egypt secure the Egyptian side of its 15- kilometre border with Gaza. The Israeli ambassador to Egypt told Reuters that Israel is also looking forward to Egypt's helping the Palestinian Authority (PA) control Gaza following Israel's withdrawal, via mediation in the talks between the PA and the militant groups waging attacks on the Israelis. The ambassador added that Israel is willing to amend the peace treaty because Egypt will need more forces on its borders. "If we withdraw, Egyptians will play the main role in protection from the activities of smuggling and the digging of tunnels under the borders. Therefore, the [Egyptian] forces will have to differ in number and equipment from what was agreed upon 25 years ago," the Israeli envoy said. Although Cairo remains tight-lipped on that matter, Foreign Minister Ahmed Maher said that the protection of Egypt's borders with the PA-controlled areas has always been an Egyptian responsibility. Maher said that Egypt would do what is needed to protect its borders. If the matter requires amending the Egyptian-Israeli accords, this too would be done, he said. Following his talks with Shalom, Maher said, "we talked about Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. Consequent to the Israeli withdrawal, the question of security on the Egyptian- Palestinian borders is a matter of discussion between Egyptians and Palestinians." The Camp David accords, which were negotiated in 1978 and led to the signing of a peace treaty in 1979, outlined limitations on armed forces and patrol units near the international border. The treaty does not permit the presence of heavy Egyptian security along the border. Egyptian Information Minister Safwat El-Sherif had said that Cairo and Tel Aviv discussed amending the Camp David agreement or signing new agreements that guarantee establishing a border guard. As it stands, the peace agreement allows Egypt to deploy only police units along the border. Under the terms of the agreement, these policemen are allowed to carry out regular police duties. A battalion from Fiji is also deployed in the area as part of the international peace- keeping contingent that monitors compliance with the security terms of the Israeli-Egyptian agreement. According to Israel Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's withdrawal plan, a major development will occur on the Egyptian-Palestinian border; for the first time since 1967, the Palestinians will be in direct contact with a neighbouring Arab country, unhindered by Israeli intercession. Egypt is apprehensive that this would lead to its involvement in any future conflict between Israel and the Palestinians in Gaza. For one thing, Israel could blame Egypt for any weapons arriving to the Palestinians across Sinai. Sinai is currently divided into four sections of varying militarisation, with one of those sections -- D -- being the completely non-militarised area. The Israeli side also includes a demilitarised zone, which, because of the relatively smaller land area occupied by Israel, allows the Israelis to station four mechanised contingents with 4,000 soldiers equipped with engineering hardware and a maximum of 189 armoured vehicles. According to retired Maj Gen Adel Soleiman, the peace treaty bans the presence of any tanks, artillery, anti-aircraft missiles, or heavy hardware in that area. The treaty also calls for the presence of multinational forces in areas C and D, and allows both sides to engage in reconnaissance in both areas. International law specialists agree that any amendment of the accords will have to be conducted via an agreement between the two countries. The US State Department has said that the Camp David agreement is a matter of exclusive concern to Egypt and Israel, and that Washington would support any amendment agreed upon by both parties. Cairo University international law professor Salah Amer, who was a member of the Egyptian delegation to the Taba talks, said that according to the peace treaty, the borderline between Egypt and Israel is identical to the one that separated Egypt and Palestine under the British mandate that was in force until Israel's establishment in 1948. The line was historically drawn in 1906 and was internationally recognised after Egypt seceded from the Ottoman Empire. In 1922, the line was recognised as an international border. When Egypt and Israel agreed to make peace, the two countries formed a joint commission to look into the borders. The commission went back to the 1906 documents and drew the borders accordingly. Had the 1993 Oslo agreement borne fruit, a situation similar to the one that will arise when Israel withdraws from Gaza would have taken place -- with a border running directly between Egypt and Palestine, without any Israeli presence in the middle. The major difference between the climate preceding former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak's withdrawal from South Lebanon and that surrounding Sharon's plan to pull out of Gaza is Israel's desire to have its borders guaranteed by Egypt. When Barak recalled his soldiers from Lebanon, he did not wait for a quid pro quo from either Syria or Hizbullah. While Sharon -- with the US's support -- is clearly looking for Egypt to assume a security role in Israel's favour in the Gaza strip, any advantages Egypt may gain from such an arrangement would be outweighed by the security, political, and demographic burden presented by Gaza. This explains Egypt's categorical refusal to send any Egyptian soldiers beyond Egypt's borders. At the same time, Cairo seems flexible when it comes to amending the peace treaty in a manner that would allow for tighter security at the borders. Well-informed sources have told the Weekly that Cairo is aware of the magnitude of perils involved in the new situation, and thus unwilling to accept anything that would conflict with its own national security and higher interests. Egypt is not willing to send a single Egyptian soldier beyond its borders except under the umbrella of UN or international legitimacy, and only on condition that such a move would be in Egypt's interest, rather than that of other countries. Israeli military leaders, particularly Chief of Staff Moshe Ya'alon, have for some time claimed that Egypt is not doing its best to prevent Palestinian fighters from smuggling weapons into Gaza. In this respect, the Israelis want Egypt to play a greater role in the Gaza Strip, including within the so-called Philadelphia strip that separates Gaza from its border with Egypt. Should Egypt agree to do so, it would inherit Sharon's headache -- the tunnels, the smuggling of drugs, weapons, and volunteers, the Qassam missiles, the mortar rounds, and the inflammatory rhetoric emerging from Gaza's mosques. Meanwhile, Israel would retrench behind its new separation wall and blame Cairo for every round of mortar hurled across. A well-informed source told the Weekly that Israel wants to create a new strategic reality, one recalling the situation on Egypt's borders in June 1967. That new situation would benefit Israel in four ways. First, it would end the occupation, which has become a major political and public relations burden for Israel. The world does not understand why 7,500 Jewish settlers should control 155 square kilometres of the Gaza Strip, whereas the Palestinian Authority controls no more than 210 square kilometres, in which 1.3 million Palestinians live. Second, it would link Gaza to Egypt, thus forcing Egypt to be involved in everything that happens there. This situation would raise a number of questions in Cairo. What about the population increase? Will the Palestinians be given freedom of movement from the strip into Egypt? Will they be allowed to look for jobs in Al- Arish, Rafah, and Sharm El-Sheikh? More to the point, will there be a confrontation between the Egyptian authorities and the Islamic movements that are active in Gaza? Will Cairo be comfortable with such movements in power just across its borders? The third possibility being studied involves the Gaza Strip becoming a major international economic experiment, attracting investment under the supervision of the International Quartet (UN, US, EU, Russia). The fourth involves a major adjustment to the area's demographic scene. There are 4.5 million Palestinians currently living between the Mediterranean and the Jordan River (1 million in Israel, 1.3 million in the Strip, and 2.2 in the West Bank), compared with 5 million Jews. With current population growth rates, the two communities will soon be equal in pure numerical terms. The moment 7,500 settlers move out of the Gaza strip, however, 1.3 million Palestinians would be subtracted from the demographic equation. With the strip's population growing at an annual rate of 4%, and liable to double in 15 years, this might generate calls for Egypt to allocate a part of Sinai to absorb the future increase, something Cairo refuses categorically to discuss.
