First Bosnia, then Georgia. As orchestrated movements force change on their ruling elites, Shohdy Naguib examines Ukraine's chances of following suit Pitched between the East and the West in the global game of political chess, Europe's second-largest country after Russia, Ukraine, is virtually paralysed by strikes and in danger of splitting apart in the aftermath of the controversial presidential election. The outcome of the so far bloodless, yet extremely intense confrontation between the two candidates will determine Ukraine's political and economic alignment. In particular, it will dictate whether Ukraine's future lies with the European Union, or in its return to the fold of the Single Economic Zone -- the Eastern common market, now being tentatively rebuilt around Moscow? Both the first and second rounds of the elections -- plagued with numerous accusations of fraud and intimidation -- failed to produce a result which would have allowed a "legitimate president" to be safely named. Indeed, the controversial results of the second round were swiftly dismissed as unfair by "Our Ukraine" opposition party candidate Victor Yushchenko, long before the official count was published. His opponent, the current Prime Minister Victor Yanukovich, has completely lost the initiative, but not yet the elections. The Central Election Committee, the Presidential Administration and the Ukrainian Parliament -- the "Rada" -- are currently besieged by Yushchenko's supporters. And once again, the whole world watches as a multitude of orange-clad people shout down a corruption-ridden soviet-style regime on live TV. "This is the second fall of the Berlin Wall," the last president of the USSR, Mikhail Gorbachev, is quoted as saying. However, if the official count is to be believed, the victory actually went to Yanukovich. The political division that cuts through Ukraine has produced two near-equal political camps: the South-Eastern blues and the North-Western oranges. Those living in the predominantly rural pro-Western part of the country all gave their votes to Yushchenko, while the industrial East broke records of electoral attendance to express their support for the current prime minister. Yushchenko was the first to "cry wolf" and accuse his opponent of attempting to trample on legitimacy and seize power. Yanukovich's reply was that the "orange mob" in Independence Square was not an acceptable way to snatch a legitimate victory from him. The post-election battle of the streets soon spread like wildfire. First, several City Councils in Western Ukraine pledged allegiance to Yushchenko. Then the South-Eastern regions contemplated secession and spoke of forming a confederation, possibly called "New Russia", that would lean on Moscow's support, and might even eventually merge with the "Big Brother" to which it is naturally bound in so many ways. One prominent issue in current Ukrainian politics is constitutional reform. Initiated by outgoing President Leonid Kuchma early in his second term, the aim was to bring the country's political structure closer to that of a European-style presidential republic by granting more powers to the parliamentary majority and making it responsible for government appointments and oversight of the executive. Yet, after two years of debate, the proposal was eventually blocked on suspicion that it was merely an attempt to empower "a collective Kuchma" in order to protect his personal power. With neighbouring Belarus likely to vote its "old man" Alexander Lukashenko in for a third consecutive term, the presidential elections in Ukraine bear a heavy load. The opposition fear that if Yanukovich becomes president, he will follow the same path as Lukashenko in Belarus and Vladimir Putin in Russia, and install his own brand of authoritarian rule under the country's fragile democratic trappings. All of the players involved in this power struggle have at some time been members of the government of the current president. Both Yushchenko and his deputy Yulia Timoshenko have held the post of prime minister. Timoshenko -- the Iron Lady of Ukrainian politics -- has twice been sentenced to prison on corruption charges after her unsuccessful attempt to bring down Kuchma by impeaching him for allegedly ordering the killing of an opposition journalist. Ukraine has been through a chaotic phase of highly corrupt privatisations and the country's wealth is now effectively divided between three business "clans". In his election campaign, Yushchenko promised to re-examine some of the privatisation deals of the Kuchma era, thus giving the Ukrainian elites serious reason for concern should he take office. Corruption charges weigh heavily on the current leadership. Not a single major company can present clean records of its initial capital accumulation. Having served at Kuchma's side as prime minister, Yushchenko was regarded by many as the most likely candidate for the presidential post and a darling of the opposition. There is little doubt that his coming to power would initiate a considerable cleanup of the old business and political guard, accompanied by yet another process of property redistribution. Presidential powers as currently defined by the Constitution would hardly hinder him in carrying out such a task. Yanukovich is decried by the opposition as a "project" developed by the Russian policy-makers who are doing their best to preserve the status quo and keep Ukraine within their sphere of influence. He was imprisoned in his youth, and is known to resort to physical means for venting his anger on his subordinates. The "no holds barred" election struggle produced many dramatic developments and nasty revelations. The most spectacular of them all is the transformation that has badly disfigured the face of Victor Yushchenko. Within the span of only two months, this handsome man has turned into an ugly frog due to some unknown illness. This calamity is supposedly the direct result of a mysterious poisoning "accident", but while not yet proved to have been an attempt on his life, his health is deteriorating rapidly. All eyes are now on his deputy Yulia Tymoshenko, who is in charge of the "orange army" in Independence Square. The opposition has adopted the very same tactics of non- violent resistance and intimidation that proved to be so successful first in Belgrade and then in Tbilisi. Their core force is the "Pora" squads. Styled after the Serbian "Otpor" and Georgian "Khmara", the Western-Ukrainians have prepared themselves intensively, and display wonderful discipline and control. In the capital itself, the "orange revolution" is quite overwhelming. As a result of a media war during the election campaign, the two parts of the country were brainwashed, but in different ways. The split between East and West Ukraine is artificial, but it may come to run very deep if no solution is found soon. President Kuchma has stepped forth to dismiss all secession plans as void, calling on the parties to negotiate. Lech Walesa has come from Poland to act as mediator, and Javier Solana has joined the table from the EU. On Monday, Kuchma admitted that another round of voting might be needed to produce a legitimate president. This would mean that the government has significantly climbed down in its stand-off with the opposition. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court is investigating the alleged cases of election fraud -- a procedure that could take several days. On top of that, the ongoing strike is threatening the economy with collapse, and many banks are closing their doors to the crowds of people seeking to withdraw their cash. The awakening of the Ukrainian people to political participation is a major development -- and one of which possibly none of the candidates is worthy. Their economic programmes are not very different from one another, and both are promising more or less the same things. It is the people who are gaining priceless confidence in their ability to influence the future of their country by freely exercising their political will. Each day of this crisis is taking them further away from the political apathy that had become their second nature. This awakening is likely to transform not only Ukraine, but also Russia, where the political activity of the people is now at its lowest ebb ever. It no longer matters that what is now known as the "Orange Revolution" has been sponsored by the Open Society project of the financial magnate George Soros. People united in love and unity can no longer be reduced to the puppets of unknown forces.
