US Secretary of State John Kerry arrived in Egypt on Saturday with the goal of forming a broad coalition to combat Islamic State (IS) militants. Kerry met with Arab League Chief Nabil Al-Arabi and Foreign Minister Sameh Shokri in Cairo. Two days earlier, Kerry announced that 10 Arab states will join the US-led anti-IS coalition, providing much-needed regional support for Washington's plans to strike both sides of the Syrian-Iraqi frontier. The fight against IS, formerly known as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), will include “stopping the flow of foreign fighters through neighboring countries, halting the flow of money to ISIL and other violent extremists, repudiating their ideology of hate, ending impunity and bringing the perpetrators of outrages to justice, contributing to humanitarian relief efforts, assisting with the reconstruction and rehabilitation of communities brutalized by ISIL, supporting states that face the most acute ISIL threat, and joining in the many aspects of a coordinated military campaign against ISIL as appropriate.” The US says it has assembled a coalition of 40 states to support these objectives. A recent CIA report says IS may have more than 30,000 fighters in Syria and Iraq. Last week, US President Barack Obama vowed to “hunt down terrorists who threaten our country, wherever they are.” He laid out a long-term US strategy that includes expanding air strikes against IS fighters in Iraq and launching air strikes against them in Syria for the first time. But does the US need to collect troops from 40 countries to defeat 30,000 fighters? “This is propaganda to ease the anger among Americans who have been stunned by the slaughtering of two American citizens by IS terrorists in Iraq,” says retired general Mahmoud Khalaf, a consultant at the Nasser Higher Military Academy. US warplanes have already carried out their first air strike on IS near Baghdad. “Using fighter planes against terrorists will destroy facilities and bases, not the fighters,” says Khalaf. “IS elements do not gather in military units and it is very difficult to track small groups.” Still unanswered is the question of what Egypt's contribution to the coming war will be. “This is not the case of the Gulf War, when the Egyptian army participated in liberating Kuwait following the Iraqi invasion in 1990. Then, the UN Security Council passed Resolution 660 condemning the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and demanding that Iraq unconditionally withdraw all forces deployed in Kuwait,” says Khalaf. “By 16 January allied aircraft were targeting several Iraqi military sites and the Iraqi Air Force was destroyed. On 25 February Egyptian troops entered Kuwait but never crossed the border into Iraq. “The US invasion of Iraq was different, and Egypt did not participate. Cairo knew the invasion violated UN conventions.” Following his meeting with Al-Sisi on Saturday, Kerry played down the chances of an immediate broad coalition against IS. “It remains far from clear what role individual nations will play,” said a military source speaking on condition of anonymity. “It is difficult for the military and the government to say we are going to war. The coalition has not got a single definition of terrorism. We are already fighting terrorism. We are in the middle of a war in which most coalition members have declined to join us. Many of them suspended the delivery of important military equipment.” The source indicated that few within the coalition have publicly committed to military action, particularly in Syria. “Terrorist groups share an extremist ideology. We detect cooperation between them and see a danger as it crosses borders,” said Shokri. To form a united front to defeat the militants is no easy matter. Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Egypt are at odds with Qatar and Turkey over their support for the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist groups in the region. Leaders and diplomats from more than 30 countries gathered in Paris on Monday and pledged to use “whatever means necessary,” including military action, to defeat IS. Meanwhile, French Defence Minister Jean Ive Ludran arrived to meet with his Egyptian counterpart in Cairo. On Tuesday Ludran met with Al Sisi to discuss any possible role for the Egyptian army. But all the indications are that Egypt is not going to war. Not now, not there, and not under the US plan. Samir Ghattas, director of the Middle East Strategic and Political Studies Centre, says the Egyptian administration is not so naive as to fight battles on behalf of the West. “Western governments came to show how both Qatar and Turkey finance terrorist groups. Yet both countries were invited to contribute to the anti-terrorism campaign. We believe that the US has a Plan B which is to promote struggle between Sunnis and Shias,” says Ghattas. He continued to say, however, that Egypt is willing to be part of “an international front that aims to fight terrorism.” Said Ghattas, “IS as a group of terrorists and it does not require a military coalition to be beaten. The Obama administration is working hard to portray IS as a brutal enemy and is seeking to cower the Gulf states with the help of its ally, France.” Abdel-Fadeel Shoosha, a retired general and former governor of North Sinai, warns that IS is increasing its efforts to infiltrate the Sinai peninsula. “It is possible that they will be able to liaise with criminal elements to foment chaos,” he says. Stategic analyst Hamdi Bekheit disagrees. The current atmosphere in Sinai will not allow IS to spread within local tribes, he says. “IS comprises 10,000 to 15,000 losers. Sinai once acted as a shelter for terrorists, thanks to the tunnels under the border with Gaza, but this is history now.” After a year of intensive security operations, says Bekhit, Sinai “is under control and the militants are being cleared day by day.”
